Yuri BARANCHIK (Belorussia)
The statement that the US and Israel are bracing for an invasion of Iran made by Israeli Ambassador the UN Gabriela Shalev has attested a truism – nothing is secret that shall not be made manifest. The aim of this public move is self-evident: the US and Israel have failed to drum up support for the offensive against Iran from the international community (including the BRIC nations), and thus the UN Security Council shall not give its authorization to pursue a military offensive against Iran. So Washington and Tel Aviv decided to act on their own.
Iran’s peaceful nuclear program is apparently used as a mere pretext for the aggression. The ulterior motive behind it is that Iran’s economic and political integration into Eurasia, the space stretching from France and Germany to China, would drastically undercut the US influence on the political and economic relations of the states and alliances of nations on the Eurasian continent.
Within the new Eurasian political and economic configuration, whereby France is prepared to supply war vessels to Russia, Germany is willing to incorporate Russia into the Unified European Military Forces, and the European Union is looking into the possibility of establishing a European analogue of the IMF (International Monetary Fund), the US is no longer needed to function as a global moderator, and its role as a world gendarme appears to be reduced strictly to the North American continent alone.
That is why the last and singular shift that has been left at the disposal of the US in the struggle over retaining its current functionality as a global policeman is to go to war. It doesn’t matter so much what war or against whom – Washington’s priority is to make an incursion into Eurasia and solidify its intrusion under any ostensible humanitarian pretext or otherwise.
As for the economics, it is not Iran’s nuclear program, but its oil and gas reserves that, under congenial circumstances, can provide a supplementary basis for the sustainable economic growth of China and the EU. However, the second scenario carries much more negative implications for the US than the first one, as the biggest competition for the US in terms of economy and technology today as well as in the foreseeable perspective is not China, but Europe. For this reason, an option that would enable Europe to rely on Iranian hydrocarbon supplies, apart from Russian and Caspian ones, is treated by Washington as absolutely unacceptable.
As a matter of fact, being forced to withdraw its troops from Iraq (and subsequently from Afghanistan also), the US would need urgently to compensate for the ignominious ending by imploding Iran and thus burying the striving of the Eurasian nations for a steady progressive development for many years to come, or by taking Iran’s energy resources under its control and thus being able to regain the part of a global moderator in the relations between Eurasian nations.
Actually, let’s ask a simple question: why is the US participating in the political dialogue between Europe and Russia? Because for dozens of years, the US has been preoccupied with a thorough-going effort of building up a “solid” ideological foundation – the myth about the Soviet military threat, and its updated version – the Russian military threat to a unified and prosperous Europe. Consequently, a defenseless Europe is in need of someone powerful with hefty muscles from overseas to protect it from the aggressor.
Similarly, the US establishes its presence in the other most important regions and crucial areas of international politics, through creating a relevant mythology and, if it proves insufficient, through participating in its practical concoction, to illustrate: the ethnic purges in former Yugoslavia, allegedly, perpetrated by Serbs, the non-existent weapons of mass destruction (WMD), allegedly, stockpiled in Iraq, the alleged plotting of the 9/11 terrorist attack by the Taliban, the alleged nuclear bomb in the hands of Iranians etc. Frame-up is an inveterate and favorite weapon of the American imperialism in its struggle for global dominance.
Therefore, any stable onward trend in the development of relations between the Eurasian nations that has not been brokered by the US will be seen by the latter as an adverse process. Suffice to mention the US reaction to the commencement of the Soviet gas deliveries to the FRG. The most important conclusion to be drawn is as follows: the chief opponent to peace and a stable Eurasian development is the US, whose primary instrument of destabilizing the situation is inciting more and more military conflicts, in which the US is destined to play a key part. Without these conflicts, all geopolitical and geoeconomic spheres of the US influence will be contracted to the proportions of just one continent – North America. The US six world fleets can end up lying up in the harbor, the US military bases around the world can be discarded and their nuclear potential warehoused – no one is going to war with one another.
However, there is yet another motive driving the US to launch an aggression against Iran – the role of the US dollar as an international currency. The US is currently in a plight similar to the one it happed to be before World War II, when it was afflicted by the Great Depression. At that distant time, it managed to pull out of the crisis only due to the beginning of the unprecedented massive war in Europe, and not because of Franklin D. Roosevelt ‘s remarkable economic endeavors. The US extricated itself out of the crisis only at the cost of dozens of millions of lives of Europeans – Russians, Germans, Belorussians, Frenchmen, Poles and others.
The present situation is very identical: without a big-scale war the US economy is sliding towards one of the negative scenarios – either a public default or a hyperinflation, as a result of which the US influence in the world economy will be shrinking like shagreen leather.
Basically, these conclusions are also applicable to Israel: with the loss of Washington’s domineering role in global policies, Tel Aviv will be induced to strike a peace treaty with the Palestinians more or less on their terms. This would mean a serious blow to the Israeli interests, which might incur that its very existence in the present configuration will be questionable. And the bedrock reason for this will be not a military threat from the Arab neighbors, but a mass-out migration of Israeli citizens from the country.
It is obvious that in pursuit of safeguarding its global leadership and realizing its outrageous ambitions, the US is ready to blow up the entire world. That’s why the US and Israel war against Iran is imminent. The key question is not when the war is going to erupt, but what other major countries are prepared to undertake to prevent a global catastrophe caused by America unleashing a third world war.
Bearing in mind that all military conflicts involving the US were sparked by provocations, the priority at the moment is to focus all intellectual resources on neutralizing such provocation that the world is about to encounter. A logical hypothesis is that the likely provocation to trigger an attack against Iran is a detonation of a “dirty” nuclear bomb by the US and Israeli intelligence services (or a blow-up of a nuclear power plant) in Israel or elsewhere in West Europe.
Yuri Baranchik is a Cand. Sc. (Philosophy), head of the Belorussian Internet project www.Imperiya.by
Source: New Eastern Outlook