I strongly believe that the principal rules and instruments for securing global peace remain inalterable despite ongoing changes in the world. The global alliances per se are nothing, as they used to collapse without a core leading power inside. Without the Soviet Union there is no Warsaw Pact and Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (the former USSR-centered economic bloc). If there were no United States there would be no NATO or any other transatlantic structures. The G7 originally emerged as a consequence of the first serious crisis in 1970s, and so did G20 recently. So the main actors are sovereign states, not the global institutions.
Our expectations to build a new security system with the Europeans have been completely frustrated. There are a plenty of irresponsible and failed states both in Europe and NATO. They are heavily burdened with old troubles, passions, likes and dislikes etc. and prefer shifting their problems on others. It is impossible to form anything worthy with them. Moreover, the current challenges that face the United States, China or Russia are not in Europe, but in quite different location. That’s why I think that an effective new world order would require a ‘concert’ of Beijing and Moscow.
Having about 14 trillion dollars GDP Europe is a complete failure in military term. It is merely not a player. Russia, being much weaker economically, is a key component of the international security architecture as well as global military and political agendas. Assuming this we can create a realistic institution for international security based on three pillars: the USA, China and Russia. Zbigniew Brzezinski with whom I used to disagree in any point, expressed almost the same idea. But he could not offend his European friends and proposed to form the union of NATO, Collective Security Treaty Organisation and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. But what are they? Russia, China and the United States. This triangle would pave the way for the new international relations framework.
Andranik Migranyan – Chief of the New York Bureau of the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation, political analyst.
The article was published in Russian in the ‘Russia’s Strategy’ Journal, Oct, 2009