During the last weeks Afghanistan is smoothly getting back to international focus. There were so many interesting events scarcely covered by the mainstream media around Afghan affairs. We will try to scrutinize the situation, analyze real motives of the key players and elaborate a forecast on what will happen next in that long-suffering land.
First of all there is a notable shift in the US approach towards President Hamid Karzai. This person, widely perceived as an ‘American puppet’, is apparently getting out of Washington’s tight leash.
Karzai is beginning to establish direct political contacts with China, Russia, India and Iran. In a recent development, on June 11, 2010 he was a special guest on the summit of Shanghai group (SCO) in Tashkent. It was agreed that Russia will host a four-side meeting in August with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan. It is evident that the main topic of the agenda will be in seeking political solution of the turmoil in Afghanistan and reconstruction of the Afghan economy in regional context.
He has sought and apparently holds independent direct talks with the Taliban and other forces (e.g. Hekmatyar’s Islamic Party) without the US ‘blessing’ and mediation. Being a smart politician he eventually understood that his role in American eyes was not in pulling peaceful and stable Afghanistan into the US orbit, but rather in a silent compromise with the total devastation of his home land. It has been plunged into endless civil war and emerging conflict with destabilizing Pakistan over the ‘Durand line.’ So he wants to make his dream about proud and prosperous Afghanistan come true. The first step to achieve this goal is to reach an internal accord between rivaling sides of Afghan society and pacify the country. Time has proved it cannot be done with the US and allies involved in negotiations. Their agenda is not in accord with Afghanistan’s needs for the future.
The recently held Loya Jirga (all-Afghan People’s Council), a Karzai initiative, was described in the international media as ‘non-representative’, ‘consisting of Karzai’s stooges’, ‘lacking any real influence and results’ and so on. It means that Loya Jirga was not approved by global elites and is a move against realization of dark scenario for Central Asia. It is very important to note that irreconcilables of the Taliban strongly opposed to Loya Jirga and even committed attacks against the Council delegates. This is a small remark to the discussion whether the interests of radical ‘islamists’ (presumed 9/11 perpetrators) and Washington are so much drastically incompatible or perhaps sometimes coinciding (or even more than that?)…
In this context Karzai’s latest decision to discharge Interior Minister Hanif Atmar and Intelligence Chief Amrullah Saleh (known CIA arms in his circle) for failure to prevent ‘islamist’ assaults on Loya Jirga members is another signal of Karzai’s alienation from Washington.
So for Karzai it likely became evident that the ‘democratic process’ in Afghanistan as imposed by the US was a path to nowhere, to total collapse of Afghan nationhood and the long-term instability in the region. He has started his own game. This is why we are reading and will read so many ‘revelations’ about ‘involvement of Karzai’s clan in narco business’, ‘corruption’, ‘weak governance’ and so on and so forth… The US is predictable in its push-back.
Second. The US is willing to leave Afghanistan. But they can’t do it right away. They need an appearance of ‘mission complete’. A head of bin Laden (always ready to be cut and present, we are sure). A weak and manageable figure in Kabul is desirable. A tangible agreement with the Taliban leaving untouched narco-production is necessary. Secretly, secured mechanisms to blow up Afghanistan and trigger new wave of hatred and bloodshed there any time they want after the withdrawal. They desire to leave, but do not desire the conditions to be stable.
What does it mean? It means that at the time being any announcement about the voluntary withdrawal of the US and NATO troops from Afghanistan would signify that everything is set up and ready for implosion. Withdrawal of the US/NATO troops from Afghanistan will be inevitably followed by escalation of the civil war and conservation of Afghan status as main ‘heroin lab’ of the world (and then no one will take responsibility for that).
Concluding this, we can forecast future scenarios for Afghanistan:
Quite obviously, soon there will be a notable outbreak of internal opposition in Afghanistan. Huge sums will be invested in alternative figures from the top Afghan army command, security officials and some of the ambitious provincial leaders. Mass riots are very probable during and immediately after the parliamentary elections in the country due to be held in September 2010. The outcome fully depends on the ability of Karzai’s team to cope with the internal tensions under enormous media pressure from abroad. If he succeeds and does not allow the protests to be spread on streets and situation in Afghanistan to be destabilized, the fantasy of the ‘global elite’ would hardly go beyond an attempt of political assassination of the Afghan leader by Taliban/Al-Qaeda fighters with a ‘clear Pakistani trace.’
We pray for prudence and wisdom of President Karzai and his associates. If they fail, is there any chance for a miracle that another Afghan project team imposed by backstage players will be smart and talented enough to change the rules of the Great Game? Will Afghanistan become the hub of the wheel around which Chaosistan turns? We shall see.