Israel thumps on the war drum leaving the US no choice but to follow thumping on the same drum. Their belligerence has known no bounds. This time the belligerence is against Iran. There’s no stopping the hawks. Not China, nor Russia nor any European country. All the five permanent UN Security Council members have signed the war warrant against Iran in the form of four sanctions for it’s refusal to stop the nuclear enrichment program that is considered it’s inherent right as NPT signatory. The US has out rightly rejected all of Iran’s proposals to end the crisis. UN is a 5-nation failed show.
We ask three questions: 1) why are the US and Israel so determined to attack Iran which has no terrorist connections nor does it have the ability to take on the mighty US nor the capability to threaten Israel with nuclear weapons it does no possess? No answer. 2) Is it that the US and Israel wish to control Iran’s vast energy resources? The answer is yes. 3) Do the US and Israel desire a regime change from theocratic democracy to pseudo democracy? The answer is again yes. Outside of Iran, all Muslim countries are secular, pseudo-democratic or kingdoms, non-theocratic, politically weak and economically subservient to the US. Iran refuses to succumb to the US pressure on all fronts including the nuclear issue.
Iran is clearly determined not to back off. Both the US and Israel are confident that with their technological, military and financial prowess, Iran can be defeated; Iran on the other hand is confident that it can divinely defeat the US and Israel with support from Hezbollah and other Muslim countries like Lebanon, Iraq and Pakistan which have large Shia populations. Neither the US nor Iran has blinked thus far and the likelihood that either will blink is very remote.
The US and Israel hoped that the 2008 velvet revolution in Iran would be successful but that has not. Now they’re flexing muscles at Iran with their superior military hardware hoping Iran can be intimidated into giving up its nuclear intentions. The Mavi Marmara incident has been a clear message to the world that Israel’s might is right and the US has no option but to support the might with more might. That is because Israel controls the US financial reins. In the unlikely event that Iran does succumb, the odds are that the US will insist on inspections along similar lines as Iraq, dismantling of nuclear and military capability, media disinformation and occupation in any case. Iran is fully aware of US-Israeli intentions that it wants a regime change, no matter what.
In an initial, aerial and naval surprise strike, the US-Israel alliance will dominate beyond any doubt and hoped that with internal dissension, the theocratic regime will be quickly toppled. But what is the likelihood of such a scenario and what are the odds that Iran will not retaliate in the Strait of Hormuz or that Hezbollah and Hamas will not open the Israeli fronts? The odds of retaliation are very high. Exactly how, where and the severity cannot be predicted but the odds of a major war will increase.
So far, over the past two decades, Russia and China have stayed on the sidelines during the bombing and occupation of Afghanistan and subsequently US Iraq sanctions that led to its occupation. Both countries have also supported four rounds of sanctions against Iran and if Iraq and Afghanistan are any indicators, both will likely stay on the sidelines if Iran is attacked. Why have these two countries been so supportive? Is it economic benefits? China and Russia benefit by being the principal arms supplier to Iran. Its all about the UN-5 scratching each other’s backs. Another important underlying reason is the fear of Muslim terrorism created by the media hype “war on terror”, a highly successful strategy akin to the cold war against the Soviets.
It is more or less a given event that the US and Israel are determined to bomb Iran’s N-facilities under some pretext or deceit. Russian Prime Minister Medvedev on 12 July remarked that “Iran is nearing the possession of the potential which in principle could be used for the creation of a nuclear weapon,”. Is it a choreographed statement supporting Washington’s and Tel Aviv’s intentions and an indication that Russia is unwilling to trust Tehran about its goal of peaceful nuclear ambitions? Iran’s President Ahmedinejad had recently warned Moscow that it risks becoming a historic enemy of Tehran. Since the Soviet break-up, Russia has inched closer to the west but it could also turn around.
The US has also been drilling into the Arab psyche that Iran, a Shia nation, is a potential threat to its Arab neighbours due to its nuclear and theocratic ambitions. The US has successfully pitted Arabs against Iran in 1979, Arabs against Arabs in 1991 and Arabs against Turks. There have been unconfirmed reports that two undisclosed Arab countries have clandestinely provided Israel the airspaces to practice bombing runs against Iran.
Both US and Israel are determined to launch pre-emptive strikes against Iran. A failure to do so in the next 12 months or less would be a major political defeat for both countries leading to political victory for Iran and its prestige could get a boost in the Islamic countries. Both the US and Israel are willing to risk that a surgical surprise attack would lead to the early collapse of the Iranian regime as was the case with Iraq and Afghanistan and that Arabs would once again support the US efforts. Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are prepared for all eventualities and should the US efforts fail, a strong possibility exists for a prolonged war that could well result in significant loss of global oil supplies, upward spiraling of oil prices leading to an economic crisis. In such an event no country would be spared including China which has now become a net energy importer and the second largest energy consumer after the US. About 75% of Japan’s and 50% of China’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If the war drags past 60 days, cutting off imports of 16-18 million barrels oil and 80-85 thousand metric tons of LNG per day through the Straits could result in global economic disaster. Also Dubai, a strategic commercial container and transit port is a lifeline for Arab and global economies.
It is beyond doubt that regardless of its military, economic and financial prowess, the Achilles’ heel of the US is oil supplies. It cannot fight a protracted war against Iran if oil supplies are choked.
Iran holds strategic cards which, doubtlessly, both the US and Israel should be concerned about. Whether or not they are is unknown. A protracted war with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah could result in global disaster and the consequences might be far more damaging than could be envisaged leading to an Armageddon situation involving nuclear weapons being used to end such a global war. Our civilization is being threatened by the US and Israeli belligerence. It is imperative that the UN and Security Council understand the consequences and prevent a possible global war.
Reposts are welcomed with the reference to ORIENTAL REVIEW.
OR Note: Many in Russia have been surprised with the wording of July 12 statement by President Medvedev on Iran as well. Anyway the critical and exemplary deadline will be in August when the promised launch of nuclear power station in Busher under construction by the Russians due to take place. And we need to remember that “everyone should be judged for deeds, not words”. Russian imperative is to avoid US military action against Iran. Whether the policy of ‘pacifying’ global aggressor by sweet words is justified we will soon know… History proves that people lacking moral basements understand only harsh force… The Russian strategic alliance with Iran would be a better guarantee for global peace…