The White House claims Navy seals carried out an operation and killed Osama bin Laden. But basically there is no fact to back this claim.
Let us go over the known facts from residents and the non-US media.
During the night, there was an electric power cut. Helicopters were heard moving very low. Gun fire was heard. There was loud blast and one of the helicopters fell. A big orange fire was seen to light the sky. The Pakistan army quickly took over the site. Seized what ever they could find. Took control of the fallen chopper. Took it away in the light of day while putting a big covering sheet on it.
Abbotabad is 1500 to 2000 km away from sea. To get to sea you need to go over India, Pakistan or Iranian air space. Going to Indian air space is not possible as it highly monitored by both sides due constant tensions between the two neighbors. Iranian airspace is out of the question. flying over Pakistan is not easy. Pakistan has a number of nuclear weapons hidden in different parts of the country that under constant high security due to threats from Indian and Israeli air force.
Those are the only facts no one can dispute.
Now we come to the grey areas.
Urgently White house makes a revelation that Osama was killed. First they say he was armed and his wife tried to protect his from the gun shot. Then they claimed he was not armed and not protect by his wife. He shot in the head and body thrown in to the north of Arabian sea. There are also claims that he committed suicide.
Why did they shoot him when they could capture him alive? He would have been a treasure trophy. The man who made the organization from scratch is more important then any piece info on paper or hard disk. For those who claim he was too dangerous to capture, well shoot him with a tranquilizing dart for goodness sake.
From all these bits and pieces one can make up a big picture.
Relation between Pakistan and US were at a breaking point. Pakistan wants US to stop its operation in Pakistan and start negotiation with all the freedom fighters in Afghanistan. The US only wants to talk to defected Taliban. Pakistan fears this might be seeds of a future civil war in Afghanistan. And a potential risk to Pakistan security.
The navy seals came to do something else. They were spotted by Pakistan Army and one chopper was shot down. It is not easy to para shoot out of a helicopter and that too flying low. So definitely some people were killed. The mission failed.
Before the Pakistan army could make sense of how to handle the event in media, Obama and gang unleashed plan B. Quickly claimed Death of OBL who was already dead.
The Pakistan Army and ISI were checked mated. They could neither claim Osama was not there nor could they claim he was there. By confirming would mean something fishy. By denying would mean incompetence. So they kept silent.
A media war has been unleashed to prepare a war on Pakistan. Pakistani politicians are too busy or have been made silent. Gilani ran away to France. Zardari had a ready made note prepared for him by his masters and got published amazingly. He became an analyst over night.
But Pakistan is actually a step ahead of this. Any attack against Pakistan would have to come from the north or south. From the north the supply lines are through Pakistan. 64% of fuel and 80% supplies. They need to block this. And let the Afghan Taliban do what they have to with some fresh intelligence.
From the south I don’t think China would allow that. There is a big chance that Chinese will intervene as they have so many times claimed that Pakistan is their Israel. If China enters I’m sure India will also enter the war. I think this will the start of World War 3 and the first Nuclear War. All the four parties are nuclear armed. The most to loose from this war are Pakistan, India and China. I don’t think they will allow this situation to progress.
It seems before US can start this war there will a huge diplomatic effort to stop it.
Tajwali Khan Sultan is an independent researcher and anti-war activist from Pakistan.