World On Course For Next Crisis?

In his recent article in The Telegraph, Gordon Brown, the ex British PM, has urged politicians at the next G20 summit, which takes place in Cannes in November, to take control of a globalised financial system which is still “perilously” unregulated.

The West is following a practice—and a very dangerous one – to save itself from a financial meltdown. They’re creating disturbances in the Arab world ( Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, et al) to grab the wealth of rulers through the UN instrument and sanctions. Thus far they’ve appropriated sums of close to US$ 250 billion and transferred it to reducing their debts and deficits. The entire Libyan operation will cost NATO $5-7 billion but they’re hoping to reap close to $100 billion over the next 5 years through oil and gas revenues and reconstruction. If Libya becomes Iraq, the west is doomed. It is entirely possible that the Libyan opposition to Gaddafi could become opposition to NATO when they discover they’ve been fooled as NATO has no intention of handing over Libya to the opposition rebels. Soon—maybe by July/ August 2011—Gaddafi will be gone but by then NATO would have severely destroyed Libya.

Even the “objective” of de-nuking Pakistan (denuking is discounted but the objective persists) could lead to irreversible destabilization of south Asia or for the matter an attack on Iran (though least likely). Libya is the wild card with a situation developing potentially similar to that of Iraq or Afghanistan.

Iraq is costing US close to $200 million/ day in security operations–$70 billion/year and they’re not recovering more than half of that. Afghanistan is also costing them heavily but no financial recovery is resulting. Then there is the cost of the war on terror (WOT). How much? Anybody’s guess.

What I’ve to say is that the west, particularly NATO countries (more like PIIGS) are in a very desperate situation—both political and financial. And I’m inclined to believe that a financial meltdown is as far away as only 2 – 3 years if the western powers of Europe and N. America follow the current course.

A report to US Congress by CRS (Congressional Research Service) spells out the gloom and doom scenario on a global level back in 2005. Since then due to Iraq, Afghanistan and WOT the world has experienced a major financial catastrophe in 2008—a recession of 20 months. The current recovery is very fragile. Yet the US and the west are unable to learn the lessons of wars. Empires decline (like the UK & USSR) when they’ve to pay their bills and those bills are not being paid but they’re increasing at a disproportionate rate.

Iraq, Afghanistan and the WOT has left NATO in a perilous situation. If Libya operation fails, the world will experience a major financial catastrophe from which it will never be able to recover ever.

Several people have asked me which recession—1982 or 2008—was worse. Answer: both. The differences:
1982 recession resulted from global inflation. Recovery took 5 years. 2008 recession resulted from a credit crunch. Recovery is on-going. The next recession: western financial meltdown having global repercussions. The result: WW4.