The war in Libya has reached a deadlock: Libyans are being killed under NATO and coalition bombs; the money of the U.S., France, Great Britain is going nowhere; the leader of the Jamahiriya does not leave power and ‘there is no light at the end of the tunnel’, no quick victory, a complete dead end.
The war in Libya continues: aircrafts and already helicopters are striking blows to military and civil (by mistake as they say) objects; both military and civilian infrastructure is being destroyed; Libyans are being killed and impoverished. In the operation conceived by the West and being implemented in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1973 in order to ‘protect civilians’ under NATO bombs, over 700 civilians have died, 4067 wounded of which more than 400 are seriously wounded. The initial term of NATO’s Operation Unified Protector was 90 days, covering the period until 30 June. However, the war seems to be prolonged, and the decision has been already announced by Defence Ministers of the NATO members to extend operations in the Jamahiriya for an indefinite term. Which one – no one knows. Chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen said the US military leadership does not undertake to predict how long this operation will last.
On June 8, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen appealed to the alliance member states to expand NATO’s military involvement in the operation, as most NATO members intend neither to get involved in operations in Libya nor to increase their participation in it. Currently, of 28 NATO countries only 14 are included in the international coalition fighting in Libya. Others have only given a political agreement on the conduct of operations. Germany has reaffirmed that it would not get involved in the air operation, and Spain, in turn, has eliminated possibility of using their aircrafts for attacks on ground targets. Norway and Sweden are going to reduce their participation in the military operation after the expiry of the 90-day period.
Today, experts say that NATO in North Africa has reached a deadlock: The Coalition Air Force continues to strike blows both on the military infrastructure and civilian targets, tax money of the United States, Great Britain, France and other countries of the alliance is going nowhere, rebels are marking time and asking for more effective assistance from the Western benefactors, and the leader of the Jamahiriya having significant support from the local population continues to remain in power.
Addressing the Libyans in a live state television broadcast, Al-Qadhafi repeatedly declared that he ‘will not give up under the onslaught of the Western coalition and will fight to the death.’ At the same time, Al-Qadhafi agreed to a ceasefire and opening a dialogue with the rebels for political solution to the crisis and asked for the convening of an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council to review the mechanisms of UN Security Council resolution 1973. In general, the Western-backed so-called rebels not only gained no quick victory over al-Gaddafi, but brought the situation to a complete deadlock.
And not only Libya has found itself in a deadlock, but also the US, France, Italy and Great Britain, which after having organized the Libyan conflict, still can not dismiss Muammar al-Qadhafi and do not clearly imagine the future of the country, and who, so to say, will rule the country, if, for example, the US and NATO eventually win the war. According to the American political analyst Doug Bandou, ‘the longer the conflict lasts, the more foolish (if not crazy) the members of the alliance seem.’
Therefore it is no accident that the United States House of Representatives (lower house) voted against the resolution, which would give Barack Obama the right to use the US armed forces in Libya during the year. To date, the Pentagon?s expenses for the operation in Libya have already exceeded, according to Democratic Representative, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, $1 billion. ‘And the main question for NATO now is not whether we can continue the operation but who of members of the alliance will bear the cost,’ said the representative of the US administration.
The Arab world, African countries are rethinking their involvement in the Libyan crisis. Head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa in his statement urged NATO to stop bombing Libya and to find a political solution to crisis. He stressed that the NATO leadership and Libyan opposition must give up their demand for the resignation of the Libyan leader Muammar al-Qadhafi. According to him, NATO begins to lose support of Arab States, which originally had given their consent for the air strikes on Libya. And the President of the Republic of South Africa Jacob Zuma, while in Tripoli, said directly that ‘NATO Air Forces raids undermine peace-making efforts in Africa in Libya.’
The opposition Transitional National Council (PNC) has delusive prospects of victory too, which is not able to assume full responsibility for the fate of the country and whose resources come to an end. On June 18, Minister of Finance and the rebel government of the oil industry in Benghazi Ali Tarun, ‘the rebel forces have fully exhausted their financial resources.’ This happened because, firstly, oil extraction from the rebel-controlled fields has stopped due to military operations, and secondly, Western countries refuse to provide financial assistance to rebels. Cash payment to the rebels from frozen accounts in the Western banks of Al-Qadhafi’s government is delayed too.
Al-Qadhafi is fully extended as well. Under the blows of the coalition the war potential is crumbling: due to military operations and external economic blockade the living standards of the Libyans has significantly decreased; some food commodities have risen in price more than twice, there is an acute shortage of petrol.
With regard for the deadlock condition, the official Tripoli is trying to find contacts both with the United States, the European Union, Russia, the African Union, and with the rebel government. Negotiations between the rebels and Al-Qadhafi’s government were held in Egypt, France, Norway and Tunisia. This was announced at a press conference in Tripoli by Libya’s Prime Minister al-Baghdadi Ali al-Mahmoudi.
However, nobody knows how to break the Libyan deadlock. But today one thing is clear – the longer NATO’s Operation Unified Protector lasts, and subsequently perhaps the ground campaign of the European Union and the civil war, the more Libyans will die, the more American and European resources will be wasted without any sense, the lower confidence to the West will be, the more enemies it will have in the Islamic world, including pacifists and those who have opened eyes to the astonishing incompetence of the NATO Allies.
In modern wars, often little wars precede big wars. Thus in WWII Hitler’s began his world conquest with the 1938 invasion and annexation of Czechoslovakia, then the 1939 invasion of Poland, followed by the 1940 invasion of western Europe and the biggest land invasion in the world history began in 22 June 1941 when Axis forces invaded the Soviet Union. If indeed the current crisis jump start a world Armageddon it can be said it started in the 1991 first Gulf War and that it has gained greater moment with the 2001 U.S invasion of Afghanistan , the 2003 U.S invasion of Iraq. For the African continent, the key historical marker of what could be potential global crisis began in 2006 when the U.S backed illegal invasion of Somalia using black African forces from Ethiopia. If the African the Union firmly rejected the U.S. backed illegal invasion of Somalia in 2006, most likely the U.S and EU would not have been so eager with their current crusade against Libya. So far, unlike their shameful conduct in Somalia, in the case of Libya member nations making up the African Union are at least publicly standing firmly against the colonial takeover of Libya’s oil. Perhaps this resistance will prevent war on Syria and Iran and thus postpone what could potentially turn into a global Armageddon.