Informational warfare launched by the West in the Muslim world could not but result in the Arab youth betraying their traditional values and taking to the streets to express their protest. It is absolutely evident that these protests were orchestrated from overseas. This became particularly clear in the final stage of the armed confrontation in Libya.
Imposing pro-democratic values in countries with hard-line regimes could not but bring them into a historical deadlock. The waves of unrest started taking unusual shapes… The Arab Spring gave the world three successful anti-government coups – in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, and three influential anti-government movements – in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain. In the last three countries things have not yet been settled. It seems that Yemenis are seeking for the Libyan scenario, while the Yemeni government sent troops to Sanaa to suppress the protests.
However, the way things unfold in these countries does not mean that their nations will soon be living under the democratic rule.
The Libyan opposition has taken quite a notable course. Their leadership comprises factions which had never been friends. So, new violence is very likely the moment they start fighting for power. And what is also very important that during Gaddafi`s 40-year rule many Libyans became well-to-do people. Now that the economic development is stalled, only a consolidated approach can change things for the better. Chances are too low for this to happen, and several months after the end of the Gaddafi regime his supporters may start chanting anti-democratic slogans.
Since the Libyan population consists of tribes, the ousted Colonel has enough supporters. The recent events show that Algeria- since it has not recognized the National Transitional Council – is ready to support Gaddafi. This all means that new outbreaks of civil war are highly likely.
NATO does not seem to be worrying much about tribal tensions in Libya – they are more concerned about oil production there. Like it was in Iraq when the war did not prevent them from selling oil to some consumers for 20$ per barrel.
Libya is turning into a hotbed of radical Islamism. In the wake of the Arab Spring, Libya sees Islamists becoming more influential in the country`s political circles. For example, there are Salafists who are closely linked to Al-Qaida (in other countries also called ‘wahhabists’). Salafists are also quite numerous in Egypt and Syria, like never before. They are said to be supported by Saudi Arabia, which has its interests in the game called ‘Arab spring’.
One of their main goals is to free the Muslim world from foreign values, which will inevitably cause a conflict between Islamists and local pro-democratic factions. In addition to this, there is quite a strong belief in the riot-hit Muslim countries that the West played a crucial role in the Arab spring tensions.
“Some people draw a parallel between the post-Gaddafi Libya with Iraq after Hussein was toppled.- Bashir al-Bakr writes in the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar.- Iraq is in the grip of the never-ending civil war. Americans underestimated Hussein`s authority in the country. After the US invasion of Iraq tensions grew even deeper there. The same is going to happen in Libya. They have already made too many mistakes to be able to find a painless solution to the ongoing crisis”.
Another Lebanese paper, As-Safir, offers its view on the situation: “Many people in the region believe that oil is the only reason why western countries started the operation. NATO`s support was not free, and now Libya will have ‘to pay the bills’.” And since the economic situation is getting worse each day there, Islamists thus getting a real chance to encourage their supporters to attack local pro-Western activists. We cannot rule out a possibility that those who kiss the US and the French flags today, will be pursued by outraged crowds tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Al-Qaida is gaining strength in southern Yemen. A day will come when Al-Qaida militants will enter Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Libya. Some of them are already there. “We are moving into the unknown,- says Talal Atrissi, a Lebanese political analyst.- What comes next? Only more conflicts and fights for power…This will be a difficult time, full of hardships and cruelty”.
Those who organized the Arab spring have just only released the seismic energy, so to speak. Having tasted empty promises, Arab crowds will soon learn what chaos and terrorism may bring into their lives…
Source: Strategic Culture Foundation