Egypt: Ominous Perils of Civil War

Ex-Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi is overthrown on July 3, 2013 when Egyptian army managed a military coup against the firstly elected head of state, causing a grave blow to the democratic norms and spirit. Prior to the condemnable situation, Morsi won 51.7 % vote against Shafique Ahmed’s 48.3% through which he was declared on June 24, 2012 as the president. Egypt exists as the predominant state in both Northern Africa and the Middle East in periphery. On the matter of overthrow of Morsi, the bloody clashes are seen to be ushered between the opposed groups, favoring respectively Morsi and the nascent opposition.

This menace has claimed 48 lives until the date. BBC News has subsequently termed that there are two Egypts now. According to media reports, some covert hands succeed to penetrate the two sides and work as sympathetic to each of them. These elements are indulged in kindling the situation and pushing it towards civil war. Therefore, the miserable Egyptian society is leaning towards a disease that will affect every Egyptians embodiment and decimate its capacity to stand on its foot in the possible forthcoming intense security environment in the Middle East. This saga can be analyzed by interpreting certain aspects.

Essentially, the Morsi Government resembled in its struggle, manifesto and Islamic orientation with the justice and Development party of Turkey to whom Recep Tayyab Urdegan represents in regime. The latter put the country on the path to immense progress, minimized the military’s role in politics and made his country one of the developed nation. The same agenda and policy objectives that Morsi tended to achieve. Unfortunately, he inclined towards Ankara, paving the way for a regional alliance with Turkey in the early stages of his regime.

OttomanEmpire1800Rationales remember that the massive projection was seen in the western media that Ankara had been striving to control the former ottoman territories. Egypt ranks among those states who remained the part of the Ottoman Empire from 1551 to the mid of the 19th century. If the two sides succeeded, the completely Eastern Mediterranean Sea was likely to convert into Turko-Egypt Lake and the area of influence for the western powers commonly and the Israel particularly would become shrank. Consequently, this alliance could assert its power and was likely to share the world power, which was unacceptable to the western powers deliberately patronizing Israel in the region. That is why the US including the Western Europe avoids stating the Egyptian military act as rebellious. Therefore, the covert hands were realistically plotting to make the Morsi foundered. The world saw what happens.

On the part of Egyptian army, the embraced coup de taunt is likely to be condemned partly because of violating democratic norms, overthrowing an elected government and partly because of its lack of security foresight that demonstrates their king of arms being less patriotic. The Syrian land has become the graveyard of the masses. Israel has started military exercises on the prestigious Golan Heights. The American forces are being amassed in the Middle East. The intense security environment is prevailing in the neighboring Middle East.

Under such scenario, the policy making body of the Egyptian army decided to side with the opposition and to topple the government. Technically, it shows that the army is more loyal to the foreign agenda than to the national interests. It should have to follow the Pakistan army which show the wisdom when the extreme long-marches, and Dharna pretests were convened in order to topple the PPP led government. Nonetheless, the Army played its constructive and objective role for sake of the national security. Instead, the Egyptian army went on wrong direction and pushed the unfortunate Egyptians towards armed clashes.

Crowds Rally In Tahrir Square. Would you be able to figure out the date of this snap-shot? 2011? 2012? 2013?
Crowds Rally In Tahrir Square. Would you be able to figure out the date of this snap-shot? 2011? 2012? 2013?

Presently, the scenario is that 52% partisans of Muslim Brotherhood have declared the coup as tyrannical and seem resisting it. Vladimir Simonov, a Russian expert on Middle East affairs writing for New Eastern Outlook has also predicted that the civil war is entrusted on the Egyptian nation. Coherently, the perils of civil war are imminent specifically when the Morsi partisans have termed it exploitive and formulate 52% of the entire population. Besides, they have street power throughout the country. They also know that Muslim Brotherhood will never be able to capture the reign of powers if it remains silent on its violated mandate. They are more organized and posses the vigor to suffer the hardships.

That is why the Jeremy Bowen’s analysis on two Egypts seems relevant. Accordingly, the Egypt’s military power will ultimately be destroyed before going to the adversarial confrontation to the national enemy. I remember the Israeli minister of defense in 2011 stated that alike Hezbollah, Egypt is going to be impervious for Tel Aviv. In case, the civil war is erupted, that military power will die down and the glooming military threats to Israel will, for time being, be eliminated. Additionally, if the Egypt is weakened and its military power is decimated and exhausted, the plans to extend the Israeli boundaries to the Nile will sagaciously be accomplished. Finally the civil war is glooming and the region is about to witness another account of bloodshed.

The views expressed may not coincide with one’s of the OR editorial.

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