Hybrid Wars 1. The Law Of Hybrid Warfare

Oriental Review is very happy to announce that we will be regularly publishing Andrew Korybko’s latest research on Hybrid Wars. Building off of the strategies that he described in last year’s book of the same name, Andrew has conceptualized a new paradigm for understanding international relations and invented an accompanying methodology for testing it. The “Law Of Hybrid War”, the name of his newest series, states that:

The grand objective behind every Hybrid War is to disrupt multipolar transnational connective projects through externally provoked identity conflicts (ethnic, religious, regional, political, etc.) within a targeted transit state.

Russia’s Eurasian integration objectives and China’s Silk Road projects are the targets of the US’ global Hybrid War strategy, and this accordingly opens up a wide range of geographic battlefields. Andrew examines the Greater Heartland, the Balkans, ASEAN, transoceanic Africa, and Latin America in identifying the vulnerabilities that each of the relevant transit states has to this revolutionary type of asymmetrical warfare.

His unique methodology incorporates the variables of ethnicity, religion, history, administrative boundaries, physical geography, and socio-economic disparity in crafting comprehensive analyses that demonstrate each country’s Hybrid War weaknesses. The objective of the work is to illustrate the means that the US could predictably employ in destabilizing these targeted states, thereby giving decision makers and the public advance notice so that they can be better prepared to deal with certain preplanned scenarios as they arise.

Please visit us to follow the updates of the “Hybrid Wars” series due to be released every Friday starting today.

The Law Of Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid War is one of the most significant strategic developments that the US has ever spearheaded, and the transitioning of Color Revolutions to Unconventional Wars is expected to dominate the destabilizing trends of the coming decades. Those unaccustomed to approaching geopolitics from the Hybrid War perspective might struggle to understand where the next ones might occur, but it’s actually not that difficult to identify the regions and countries most at risk of falling victim to this new form of aggression. The key to the forecast is in accepting that Hybrid Wars are externally provoked asymmetrical conflicts predicated on sabotaging concrete geo-economic interests, and proceeding from this starting point, it’s relatively easy to pinpoint where they might strike next.

The series begin by explaining the patterns behind Hybrid War and deepening the reader’s comprehension of its strategic contours. Afterwards, we will prove how the previously elaborated framework has indeed been at play during the US’ Wars on Syria and Ukraine, its first two Hybrid War victims. Next part reviews all of the lessons that have been learned thus far and applies them in forecasting the next theaters of Hybrid War and the most vulnerable geopolitical triggers within them. Subsequent additions to the series will thenceforth focus on those regions and convey why they’re so strategically and socio-politically vulnerable to becoming the next victims of the US’ post-modern warfare.

Patterning The Hybrid War

31074The first thing that one needs to know about Hybrid Wars is that they’re never unleashed against an American ally or anywhere that the US has premier preexisting infrastructural interests. The chaotic processes that are unleashed during the post-modern regime change ploy are impossible to fully control and could potentially engender the same type of geopolitical blowback against the US that Washington is trying to directly or indirectly channel towards its multipolar rivals. Correspondingly, this is why the US won’t ever attempt Hybrid War anywhere that it has interests which are “too big to fail”, although such an assessment is of course contemporaneously relative and could quickly change depending on the geopolitical circumstances. Nevertheless, it remains a general rule of thumb that the US won’t ever intentionally sabotage its own interests unless there’s a scorched-earth benefit in doing so during a theater-wide retreat, in this context conceivably in Saudi Arabia if the US is ever pushed out of the Mideast.

Geostrategic-Economic Determinants:

Before addressing the geo-economic underpinnings of Hybrid War, it’s important to state out that the US also has geostrategic ones as well, such as entrapping Russia in a predetermined quagmire. The “Reverse Brzezinski”, as the author has taken to calling it, is simultaneously applicable to Eastern Europe through Donbass, the Caucasus through Nagorno-Karabakh, and Central Asia through the Fergana Valley, and if synchronized through timed provocations, then this triad of traps could prove lethally efficient in permanently ensnaring the Russian bear. This Machiavellian scheme will always remain a risk because it’s premised on an irrefutable geopolitical reality, and the best that Moscow can do is try to preempt the concurrent conflagration of its post-Soviet periphery, or promptly and properly respond to American-provoked crises the moment they emerge. The geostrategic elements of Hybrid War are thus somewhat inexplicable from the geo-economic ones, especially in the case of Russia, but in making the examined pattern more broadly pertinent to other targets such as China and Iran, it’s necessary to omit the “Reverse Brzezinski” stratagem as a prerequisite and instead focus more on the economic motivations that the US has in each instance.

The grand objective behind every Hybrid War is to disrupt multipolar transnational connective projects through externally provoked identity conflicts (ethnic, religious, regional, political, etc.) within a targeted transit state.

This template can clearly be seen in Syria and Ukraine and is the Law of Hybrid Warfare. The specific tactics and political technologies utilized in each destabilization may differ, but the strategic concept remains true to this basic tenet. Taking this end goal into account, it’s now possible to move from the theoretical into the practical and begin tracing the geographic routes of various projects that the US wants to target. To qualify, the multipolar transnational connective projects being referred to could be either energy-based, institutional, or economic, and the more overlap that there is among these three categories, the more likely it is that a Hybrid War scenario is being planned for a given country.

Socio-Political Structural Vulnerabilities:

Once the US has identified its target, it begins searching for the structural vulnerabilities that it will exploit in the coming Hybrid War. Contextually, these aren’t physical objects to be sabotaged such as power plants and roads (although they too are noted, albeit by different destabilization teams), but socio-political characteristics that are meant to be manipulated in order to attractively emphasize a certain demographic’s “separateness” from the existing national fabric and thus ‘legitimize’ their forthcoming foreign-managed revolt against the authorities. The following are the most common socio-political structural vulnerabilities as they relate to the preparation for Hybrid War, and if each of them can be tied to a specific geographic location, then they become much more likely to be used as galvanizing magnets in the run-up to the Color Revolution and as preliminary territorial demarcations for the Unconventional Warfare aspect afterwards:

291182* ethnicity

* religion

* history

* administrative boundaries

* socio-economic disparity

* physical geography

The greater the overlap that can be achieved among each of these factors, the stronger the Hybrid War’s potential energy becomes, with each overlapping variable exponentially multiplying the coming campaign’s overall viability and ‘staying power’.

Preconditioning:

Hybrid Wars are always preceded by a period of societal and structural preconditioning. The first type deals with the informational and soft power aspects that maximize key demographics’ acceptance of the oncoming destabilization and guide them into believing that some type of action (or passive acceptance of others’ thereof) is required in order to change the present state of affairs. The second type concerns the various tricks that the US resorts to in order to have the target government unintentionally aggravate the various socio-political differences that have already been identified, with the goal of creating cleavages of identity resentment that are then more susceptible to societal preconditioning and subsequent NGO-directed political organizing (linked in most cases to the Soros Foundation and/or National Endowment for Democracy).

To expand on the tactics of structural preconditioning, the most commonly employed and globally recognized one is sanctions, the implicit goal of which (although not always successful) has always been to “make life more difficult” for the average citizen so that he or she becomes more amenable to the idea of regime change and is thus more easily shepherded into acting upon these externally instilled impulses. Less known, however, are the more oblique, yet presently and almost ubiquitously implemented, methods of achieving this goal, and this surrounds the power that the US has to affect certain budgetary functions of targeted states, namely the amount of revenue that they receive and what precisely they spend it on.

The global slump in energy and overall commodity prices has hit exporting states extraordinarily hard, many of which are disproportionately dependent on such selling such resources in order to satisfy their fiscal ends, and the decrease in revenue almost always leads to eventual cuts in social spending. Parallel with this, some states are facing American-manufactured security threats that they’re forced to urgently respond to, thus necessitating them to unexpectedly budget more money to their defense programs that could have otherwise been invested in social ones. On their own, each of these ‘tracks’ is designed to decrease the government’s social expenditure so as to incubate the medium-term conditions necessary for enhancing the prospects of a Color Revolution, the first stage of Hybrid Warfare. In the event that a state experiences both limited revenue intake and an unexpected need to hike its defense budget, then this would have a compound effect on cutting social services and might even push the Color Revolution timeframe forward from the medium- to short-term, depending on the severity of the resultant domestic crisis and the success that the American-influenced NGOs have in politically organizing the previously examined identity blocs against the government.

Andrew Korybko is the post-graduate of MGIMO University and author of the monograph “Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change” (2015). This text will be included into his forthcoming book on the theory of Hybrid Warfare.

Hybrid Wars 1. The Law Of Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid Wars 2. Testing the Theory – Syria & Ukraine

Hybrid Wars 3. Predicting Next Hybrid Wars

Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland

Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans

Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China

Hybrid Wars 7. How The US Could Manufacture A Mess In Myanmar

Hybrid Wars 8. Strategies Against Africa

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

113 Comments

  1. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 1. The Law Of Hybrid Warfare | Protestation

  2. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 1. The Law Of Hybrid Warfare | Oriental Review | Blog de Jean-Philippe Eglinger

  3. Pingback: The Law Of Hybrid Warfare | GeoPol Intelligence

  4. Pingback: Hybrid Wars. Triggering Ethnic, Religious, Regional and Political Conflicts | Counter Information

  5. Pingback: Human Rights, Corruption and the Canada-Honduras Free Trade Agreement: The Assassination of Activist Berta Caceres – aladdinsmiraclelamp

  6. Pingback: War Chronicle 6-March-2016 | Workers BushTelegraph

  7. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 1: The Law of Hybrid Warfare | OffGuardian

  8. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 2. Testing The Theory – Syria And Ukraine | Oriental Review

  9. Pingback: Hybrid Wars Part 1: Disrupting Multipolarism Through Provoked Conflict | CAPITOL ZERO

  10. Pingback: Hybrid Wars Part 1: Disrupting Multipolarism Through Provoked Conflict | DailyDeceit

  11. Pingback: Hybrid Wars Part 1: Disrupting Multipolarism Through Provoked Conflict | ValuBit

  12. Pingback: Hybrid Wars Part 1: Disrupting Multipolarism Through Provoked Conflict | Political American

  13. Pingback: Hybrid Wars Part 1: Disrupting Multipolarism Through Provoked Conflict | JPPress

  14. Pingback: Hybrid Wars Part 1: Disrupting Multipolarism Through Provoked Conflict | StrikeEngine

  15. Pingback: Hybrid Wars Part 1: Disrupting Multipolarism Through Provoked Conflict - Deanetwork

  16. Pingback: Today’s News 14th March 2016 | The One Hundredth Monkey

  17. Pingback: Hybrid Wars Part 1: Disrupting Multipolarism Through Provoked Conflict | Golden Gate Daily

  18. Pingback: Hybrid Wars Part 1: Disrupting Multipolarism Through Provoked Conflict - News Near You | Latest Trending News

  19. Pingback: Guerres hybrides : 1. La loi de la guerre hybride – ANTI-MONDIALISATION

  20. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 3. Predicting The Next Hybrid Wars | Oriental Review

  21. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (I) | Oriental Review

  22. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (I) | Steven25's Blog

  23. Pingback: "HYBRID WARS" AND THE RUSSIAN RESPONSE

  24. Pingback: “HYBRID WARS” AND THE RUSSIAN RESPONSE |

  25. Pingback: Guerras Híbridas” Abordagem adaptativa pós-tudo da ‘mudança de regime’ | Observatório de Relações Internacionais da UFOP

  26. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (II) | Oriental Review

  27. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (I) | Réseau International (english)

  28. Pingback: APPAF Newsletter 04-07-2016 | APPAF

  29. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (III) | Oriental Review

  30. every element mooted for hybrid war is present in the US. This implies that it is at least an alternative in reserve in order to control or mitigate any coordinated resistance. It also invites exploitation by outside powers, presumably China or Russia. Similarly, these elements are developing in western Europe via denaturalisation, etc – implying that an option of “poisoning the well” in order to weaken the Earth Island (Mackinder) should a Sino-Slavc domination of Europe become proximate.

  31. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 2. Testing the Theory – Syria & Ukraine by Andrew Korybko - GPOLIT

  32. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (IV) | Oriental Review

  33. Pingback: Guerres hybrides : 4. Dans le grand Heartland (III) – ANTI-MONDIALISATION

  34. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (V) | Oriental Review

  35. Pingback: Guerres hybrides : 4. Dans le grand Heartland (IV) – ANTI-MONDIALISATION

  36. Pingback: “Politically Incorrect”: African Refugee Riots, South Sudan and the Anti-China Plot

  37. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans (I) | Oriental Review

  38. Pingback: Hybrid Wars: Breaking the Balkans | Counter Information

  39. Pingback: Hybrid krigsførelse | Moderne Tider

  40. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans (III) | Oriental Review

  41. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans (II) | Oriental Review

  42. Pingback: Is India now aligning with US foreign policy ? - Alex Poucher

  43. Pingback: Hybrid Wars: Breaking the Balkans. Intense New Cold War Competition | Counter Information

  44. Pingback: Macedonian Media: We Will Not Succumb To Western Blackmail! | Oriental Review

  45. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans (IV) | Oriental Review

  46. Pingback: Especial: Análise de assuntos Geoestratégicos via Andrew Korybko -Oriental Review Parte 1 e 2 | MATÉRIA PÚBLICA

  47. Pingback: Hybridní války 1. – Zákon hybridního válčení – Nová republika

  48. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans (V) | Oriental Review

  49. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans (VI) | Oriental Review

  50. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China (I) | Oriental Review

  51. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China (II) | Oriental Review

  52. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China (III) | Oriental Review

  53. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China (IV) | Oriental Review

  54. Pingback: Is Southern Africa About To Be Shaken Up By Hybrid War? (II) | Oriental Review

  55. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China (V) | Oriental Review

  56. Pingback: Color revolutions and weapons of mass migration: Southern Africa at risk of U.S. led hybrid war | Move Along People

  57. Pingback: The Hybrid War In Practice: Towards the Destabilization of Southern Africa? | Counter Information

  58. Pingback: The Hybrid War In Practice: Towards the Destabilization of Southern Africa? – The Discourse

  59. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China (VII) | Oriental Review

  60. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 1. The Law Of Hybrid Warfare. The grand objective behind every Hybrid War is to disrupt multipolar transnational connective projects through externally provoked identity conflicts (ethnic, religious, regional, political, etc.) within a targete

  61. Pingback: Oriental revue : Hybrid Wars 1. The Law Of Hybrid Warfare 1 | documentation.erlande

  62. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 1. The Law Of Hybrid Warfare : Oriental review | documentation.erlande

  63. Pingback: NGOs And The Mechanics Of Hybrid War | Oriental Review

  64. Pingback: Oriental Review : Is Southern Africa About To Be Shaken Up By Hybrid War? (I) | documentation.erlande

  65. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 7. How The US Could Manufacture A Hybrid War Mess In Myanmar (I) | Oriental Review

  66. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 7. How The US Could Manufacture A Mess In Myanmar (II) | Oriental Review

  67. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 7. How The US Could Manufacture A Mess In Myanmar (III) | Oriental Review

  68. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 7. How The US Could Manufacture A Mess In Myanmar (IV) | Oriental Review

  69. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Strategies Against Africa – Introduction | Oriental Review

  70. Pingback: Oriental review:is southern -Africa tratened by hybrid wars 2 | documentation.erlande

  71. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Strategies Against Africa (1A) | Oriental Review

  72. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Strategies Against Africa (1B) | Oriental Review

  73. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. In The Horn Of Africa (IIA) | Oriental Review

  74. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. In The Horn Of Africa (IIB) | Oriental Review

  75. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. In The Horn Of Africa (IIC) | Oriental Review

  76. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Strategies Against Africa (IA) – Wargeyska Saxafi

  77. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Crushing The East African Community (I) | Oriental Review

  78. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Crushing The East African Community (II) | Oriental Review

  79. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Uganda’s Pivotal Future Could Be Undermined | Oriental Review

  80. Pingback: Afrika i 2017: Striden om Kongo – Midt i fleisen

  81. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Is it high time for HW in the African Highlands? | Oriental Review

  82. Pingback: L’inventaire futuriste à la Prévert est en vente dans toutes les bonnes librairies gouvernementales mondiales. Balayé Nostradamus! (by keg – 17/01/2017) « Une de keg

  83. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Lots of trouble to Tanzania | Oriental Review

  84. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. There’s more than meets the eye in Mozambique | Oriental Review

  85. Pingback: Incipient Hybrid War in South Central Africa and Mozambique | Global Research | Africanews

  86. Pingback: Iranian media: Tramp is on course to break us | Oriental Review

  87. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Malawi And Zambia | Oriental Review

  88. Pingback: Breaking: Iranian Media: “Trump Is on Course to Break Us” | NewZSentinel

  89. Pingback: Breaking: Iranian Media: “Trump Is on Course to Break Us” | Counter Information

  90. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. South Atlantic Africa | Oriental Review

  91. Pingback: Hybrid Wars and the Geopolitics of South Atlantic Africa. The Russia-China Strategic Outpost | Counter Information

  92. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. Is Southern Africa About To Be Shaken Up? | Oriental Review

  93. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. China, Cobalt, And The US’ Color Revolution Plans For The Congo | Oriental Review

  94. Pingback: Première guerre hybride au Mozambique: Les dessous chic du Mozambique. - Afriact.net - Actualité de l'Afrique

  95. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. South Sudan’s Total Collapse Could Destroy Central And Eastern Africa | Oriental Review

  96. Pingback: Hybrid War Can Wreak Havoc Across West Africa | Oriental Review

  97. Pingback: Hybrid Warfare Scenarios: China and the Geopolitics of West Africa. “The Sahel Silk Road” | Counter Information

  98. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. South Atlantic Africa | Réseau International (english)

  99. Pingback: Hybrid War Can Wreak Havoc Across West Africa (II) | Oriental Review

  100. Pingback: Hybrid War: Wreaking Havoc Across West Africa | Counter Information

  101. Pingback: Hybrid War: Wreaking Havoc Across West Africa |  SHOAH

  102. Pingback: Les ONG humanitaires occidentales et la Syrie : Les masques sont tombés! | Réseau International

  103. Pingback: Hybrid War Can Wreak Havoc Across West Africa (III) | Oriental Review

  104. Pingback: Hybrid War Can Wreak Havoc Across West Africa | Counter Information

  105. Pingback: Guerre hybride 8. La Chine, le cobalt et les plans de révolution de couleur des USA pour le Congo | Réseau International

  106. Pingback: Hybrid Wars 8. China, Cobalt, And The US’ Color Revolution Plans For The Congo | Réseau International (english)

  107. Pingback: Hybrid War Can Wreak Havoc Across West Africa (IV) | Oriental Review

  108. Pingback: IL PIANO CINESE PER IL CONGO (PRESTO, UNA RIVOLUZIONE AL COBALTO). | Studio Commercialista | Esperti in Consulenza Aziendale a Roma

  109. Pingback: PIANO CINESE PER IL CONGO (PRESTO, UNA RIVOLUZIONE AL COBALTO). | NUTesla | The Informant

  110. Pingback: Hybrid War Can Wreak Havoc Across West Africa (V) | Oriental Review

  111. Pingback: The Chinese-Indian New Cold War | CommandEleven

  112. Pingback: The western war on terrorism is a total lie – aladdinsmiraclelamp

  113. Pingback: The Machiavellian Plot to Provoke Saudi Arabia and Qatar into a “Blood Border” War |

Leave a Reply