Pakistan’s announcement that it will seek the expulsion of over 1,5 million Afghan refugees in the next 30 days is being tacitly justified by Trump’s tweet and channels his zero-tolerance stance towards immigration from “terrorist”-prone states, but it also represents the employment of reverse-“Weapons of Mass Migration” in pushing Kabul closer towards the edge of collapse and consequently filling the Taliban’s rank of supporters.
The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 1, 2018
Trump is going to soon regret what he tweeted about Pakistan on New Year’s Day in accusing it of “giving safe haven to terrorists”, since Islamabad is poised to hit Washington with an asymmetrical counterpunch that it surely won’t forget.
The Pakistani government just announced that over 1,5 million Afghan refugees must leave the country within the next 30 days, a plan that it’s been working on for a while but which just received a fresh impetus and internationally-acceptable justification with Trump’s tweet.
Had it not been for the American President’s zero-tolerance towards immigration from what his administration labels as “terrorist”-prone countries, which crucially includes Afghanistan for substantial and not political reasons (as the latter relates to Iran’s inclusion and Saudi Arabia’s exclusion), then Pakistan would have risked drawing heavy pressure from the State Department on exaggerated claims that it’s “violating the human rights” of the refugees.
Trump, however, said that Pakistan was “giving safe haven to terrorists”, and since the US formally regards Afghan refugees as being too much of a potential security hazard to allow into its own country, it’s forced to accept Pakistan’s expulsion of 1,5 million of them on the implicit basis that they also constitute a serious terrorist threat to the state such as the one that the President just tweeted about.
This isn’t at all what Trump meant when he issued his tweet, nor the reaction that he was expecting, but by cleverly exploiting the President’s own policies at home and the suggestion he was making towards Pakistan abroad, Islamabad found a creative way to asymmetrically strike back at Washington.
Not only could Pakistan soon rid itself of actual terrorist sleeper cells and societal malcontents who have long overstayed their welcome in the neighboring country, it will also be catalyzing a series of cascading crises for Kabul through the employment of what can be described as reverse-“Weapons of Mass Migration”.
To briefly explain, Ivy League researcher Kelly M. Greenhill introduced the concept of “Weapons of Mass Migration” in 2010 to describe the ways through which large-scale population movements — whether “naturally occurring”, engineered, or exploited — impact on their origin, transit, and destination societies, theorizing that this phenomenon can have a strategic use in some instances.
Of relevance, the influx of millions of Afghan “Weapons of Mass Migration” into Pakistan since 1979 had the effect of destabilizing the host country’s border communities and eventually contributing to the spree of terrorist attacks that have since claimed over 60,000 lives in the past 15 years, but now the large-scale and rapid return of these “weapons” to their country of origin will also inevitably destabilize Afghanistan.
The landlocked and war-torn country is utterly unable to accommodate for what amounts to a roughly 3% increase in its total population in the next 30 days, especially seeing as how the Kabul government exerts little influence beyond the capital and has no sway in the approximate half of the country that’s under the control of the Taliban.
The US-backed Afghan government is already failing its citizens as it is and that’s why so many of them have either joined the Taliban or sympathize with it in the first place, so the odds of the returned refugees successfully reintegrating into their homeland’s socio-economic fabric and becoming “model citizens” is close to nil, meaning that it should be expected that the vast majority of these 1,5 million people will more than likely come to side with the Taliban than Kabul and consequently make the country much more difficult for the US to control.
In essence, what Pakistan has done is throw Trump’s tweet right back at him by using it as the internationally plausible pretext for initiating this long-planned move that was originally predicated on solely apolitical security-centric domestic interests but has now pertinently come to embody geostrategic contours by powerfully turning the tables against the US in Afghanistan through the employment of reverse-“Weapons of Mass Migration”.
DISCLAIMER: The author writes for this publication in a private capacity which is unrepresentative of anyone or any organization except for his own personal views. Nothing written by the author should ever be conflated with the editorial views or official positions of any other media outlet or institution.
Reposts are welcomed with the reference to ORIENTAL REVIEW.
Soros is NOT going to be happy ;)
Waiting for Germany to do a same thing ? NOT . To liberal unfortunately .
Nice writing
Good article
I dont think this is true in a true sense, most of us hope that KPK govt. Start sending all refugees back to Afghanistan is the country is stable under US , India and Afghan regimens. In this way we fullfill the desire of Mr Trump of none assistane to Afghan Terrorist.
Mate hats off to you for this article,thank you for giving Pakistanis a glimpse into such complicated issue,cheers keep more of those coming and love this page oriental view we need more platforms like those which actually is not brainwashing like Fox News cnn etc etc
Payback to Mr.Trump,thats something to see
Pingback: 55,000 operations postponed – NHS at breaking point – US ‘ignited’ Los Alamos atom bomb with Nazi nuclear know-how, Manfred Petritsch 2018 geopolitical analysis | BCfm Politics Show
This would also hurt Pakistan in the long term !
Things are not as simple as “exporting people on open account”…there are families / children being pushed to a war devastated country. It’s a double edged sword and would cut both “allies”. Best is for US to acquiesce to a peaceful solution and exit afghan-land instead of playing the great game.
“Weapons of Mass Migration” What a joke! Let’s remember what the intended use of the $200 Million. The money is supposed to be spent on Pakistan defense. Members of the Pakistan government can’t get out of the way of its own greed and short its defensive posture. It is difficult but try not to be blinded by hatred of Trump as to the true source of the problem. The U.S. has saved Pakistan from the Indo-Pakistan wars numerous times. If Pakistan plays the “Weapons of Mass Migration” game as the writer suggested against U.S. forces in Afghanistan then India could receive the distinct impression the U.S. will not save Pakistan again….
good article. but this act of pakistan will also be bad in human eye. 2nd both these refugees and afghan people will hate pakistan more than ever, even pakistani act is justified. plus most people in afganistan don’t like their govt no doubt but they also hate taliban much more. what pakisran needs is to get rid of these refugees but also make a freind of afghanistan. these refugees should support pakistan when they return to their land otherwise this would bring harm to pakistan in long term plan. i’m pakisrani by the way
Good annalysis!!!
Thanks dear for getting out something positive with the affect I am sure not known to the origonator as well.I wish the pak policy makers might hav some inkling regarding the affects of this move.Anyhow thanks Andrew for the article
Pingback: Pakistan’s Asymmetrical Response to Trump Is a Clever Way to Flip the Tables on Afghanistan – Counter Information
Excellent writing. Do the American people deserve Trump and his cronies. Please help save America from such people.
Pingback: Pakistan’s Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan – Earths Final Countdown
Pingback: Pakistan's Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan | ValuBit
Pingback: Pakistan's Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan | ValuBitNews
Pingback: Pakistan’s Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan – Independent News Media
Pingback: Pakistan’s Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan | GEOECONOMIST
Pingback: Pakistan’s Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan | Real Patriot News
Pingback: Pakistan's Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan | Newzsentinel
Pingback: Pakistan's Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan | ProTradingResearch
Pingback: Pakistan's Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan – TradingCheatSheet
Pingback: Pakistan's Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan – Wall Street Karma
Pingback: Pakistan's Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan | StockTalk Journal
Pingback: Pakistan’s Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan – The Conservative Insider
Pingback: Pakistan's Asymmetrical Response To Trump Is A Clever Way To Flip The Tables On Afghanistan - Telzilla
And what would happen when trump and his European and arab allies start kicking pakistanis out of US and EU and the gulf ? not to mention the over $19 billion pakistan recieves as Remmitance from these pakistanis.Dont believe that could happen ? then just check what happend last time trump banned citizens from 7 muslim countries.Kuwait banned citizens from 5 of those countries too including pakistanis.
It would be wiser for pakistan to respect Afghan sovreignity and shut down terror factories which are destroying its youth and destroying lives in Afghanistan and India.
Neither pakistan, india ,african countries or china can afford an economic war with US and EU because thats where they earn their dollars from.It is more profitable for pakistan India and african countries to trade with EU and US compared with china because they have trade surplus whith EU and US and trade deficit with China and therefore China and Russia cannot replace the EU, US market.
Whats the use of nuclear weapons if your country becomes as impoverished as North Korea ? Russia is a force for good but China is just a street thug bullying all its neighbours and grabbing their lands. china is charging over 8% interest on loans over and above inflation and currency fluctuations totalling over 18 to 28 % interest on loans which more than chedit card interest.
US is evil but China is not far behind. unless oil is replaced by clean energy which breaks the oil Dollar nexus and unless trade with china is not one sided in chinas favour there is no possibility for china to replace US or EU.
Pingback: Pakistan: Atomowa potęga uniezależnia się od wpływów USA – Xportal.pl
Pingback: Pakistan: Atomowa potęga uniezależnia się od wpływów USA | POLSKA PRAWDZIWIE PATRIOTYCZNYCH POLAKÓW
Pingback: Serbia’s Migrant Sell-Out Is To Distract From Ivanovic’s Assassination | OrientalReview.org
Pingback: Abiding by Brussels’ Migrant Resettlement Quota: Serbia’s Migrant Sell-Out Is to Distract from Ivanovic’s Assassination – Counter Information
Pingback: La réponse asymétrique du Pakistan à Trump | Réseau International