Thousands of people protested in the capital of Yerevan, some of them rather violently, to oppose former President Serzh Sargsyan’s appointment as Prime Minister following the implementation of the 2015 constitutional reforms that make the premier the most powerful person in the country. Some people considered this to be a bid by the long-time politician to remain in office under a different auspice and without having to go through the democratic process, seeing as how parliament appoints the Prime Minister whereas the President is still directly elected, and it’s because of this heavy pressure why he resigned.
Nikol Pashinyan, the veteran politician leading what he’s self-described as a “velvet revolution” and who was instrumental in 2015’s so-called “Electric Yerevan” Color Revolution attempt, was the public face behind this campaign, even though the former premier made a strong point that the man whose party only won 7% of the vote in the last election has no right to speak on behalf of the entire nation. To Pashinyan’s “credit” though, he was very open about his regime change intentions and his movement was very successful in luring hordes of naïve youth into the ever-growing crowd.
Those youngsters were understandably upset at the landlocked South Caucasian state’s stagnant economy, though their participation in the unrest was exploited in order to have them function as de-facto “human shields” protecting the older protest organizers, just like what happened in 2015. Moreover, it should be said that Armenia – just like Ukraine before it nearly half a decade ago – is split between East and West, and that this division is evidenced by the former Sargsyan government’s imperfect “balancing act” in trying to manage its membership in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union with its newfound EU relations through the “Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement” (CEPA).
This geostrategic “schizophrenia”, for lack of a better description, inadvertently destabilized the domestic political situation in Armenia by sending mixed signals to its citizens and provoking discord from all sectors of society, as it’s usually the case that no one is satisfied whenever indecisive leaders try to please everyone. This state of affairs has proven to be fertile ground for hyper-nationalists such as Pashinyan, who demagogically allege that the former government didn’t do enough to protect Armenia’s interests and should have responded in one way or another to Russia’s “military diplomacy” in maintaining the strategic “balance” between their country and its neighboring Azerbaijani foe.
The international implications of Pashinyan or other hyper-nationalist pro-Western firebrands seizing power in Armenia in the aftermath of Sargsyan’s resignation can’t be downplayed because there’s a high likelihood that they could provoke a “Continuation War” in Nagorno-Karabakh in an attempt to drag Russia into a “Reverse Brzezinski” conflagration whereby it might get sucked into a regional quagmire in the Caucasus. Moscow’s mutual defense commitments to Yerevan do not extend beyond Armenia’s frontier to the disputed region within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan, but nevertheless, the chaotic dynamics of any conflict are such that the Russian base in Gyumri might somehow end up playing a role.
That said, the events in Armenia are fast-moving and becoming ever more unpredictable by the day, and the destabilization of this state isn’t at all to Russia’s advantage nor that of the emerging Multipolar World Order in general, but corresponds chiefly to the interests that the US and its allies have in provoking problems right in the center of the Russian-Turkish-Iranian Multipolar Tripartite at this sensitive geopolitical time.
The post presented is the partial transcript of the CONTEXT COUNTDOWN radio program on Sputnik News, aired on Friday Apr 27, 2018:
DISCLAIMER: The author writes for this publication in a private capacity which is unrepresentative of anyone or any organization except for his own personal views. Nothing written by the author should ever be conflated with the editorial views or official positions of any other media outlet or institution.
Typically for Russophile Korybko, what matters is how events in Armenia might impact Russia’s interests. Whether the reform movement is good for Armenia is irrelevant for this Russian propagandist. Although the reformers have said that their movement has nothing to the do with the East or the West and is solely about ridding Armenia of corruption and an undemocratic government, Korybko insists at looking from “what’s good for Moscow” lens. Since the ousted PM was perceived to be Moscow’s man, any change must be bad for Moscow, according to Korybko. Like many “analysts”, Korybko is a mouthpiece for an obvious interest group.
Mr. Korybko, first, there is no evidence of anarchy in Armenia. Since you have not presented any such evidence, your arguments based on that are null, void, and invalid. Second, it does not follow that because an event is not in the perceived interest of Russia, it must be in the interest of the United States. Your invalid argument in formal logic is called non-sequitur — a classic error. For somebody who refers to one’s self as an analyst, it is shocking you are unable to conclude that events transpiring may be in the interest of the Armenian people.
Fake news spreader. Shame on you, liar. I can not imagine, how somebody can seat in his chair and made-up an article about political process that he is not eyewitness. This is ordered disinformation.
Absolute nonsense. What Anarchy in Armenia? Pashinyan a hyper-nationalist? You think it’s only kids at these protests?
I’ve been on the streets during these protests. There are all age groups. ALL AGE GROUPS. Just yesterday I stood next to a grandmother who had been there every day.
It has nothing to do with Russia or the US. It has to do with the corruption of the HHK government. It has to do with telling professionals like doctors and teachers that if they don’t vote for HHK they will lose their salary. It has to do with having the former PM’s brother claiming your business as his own. It has to do with Oligarchs killing people while the police turn the other way and then getting goverment posts. It has to do with having to bribe EVERY GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL to get something done.
It has to do with so much graft that NGOs and the Armenian diaspora won’t even give money to Armenia causes/issues anymore because it all disappears.
It has to do with giving Armenia a chance to grow and prosper again, to re-earn the trust and support of the diasporans and NGOs that want to help.
Your entire article is completely made up. You are so out of touch with reality that it’s really a shame that anyone employs you as an analyst.
Mr. Korybko, I won’t call you an ass, but I will call this article asinine.
Comments are way to articulate comments here to be random members of the public (not you Zara.. you’re the real deal).
You want evidence? Here is a list of the US thugs operating out of the US Embassy in Armenia.
Employees of the Central intelligence Agency in Armenia
Mrs. Makisha Owl, first Secretary of the Embassy, Deputy spokesman of the CIA
Mr. Bradley Philpot, safety officer, previously worked in Georgia, close M. Owl;
– Mr. Richard hatch, second Secretary of the Embassy;
Mr. Josie of Lardizabal, second Secretary of the Embassy;
Mr. Adam Colvin, second Secretary and Vice Consul.
The officers of the Intelligence Department of the Ministry of defense:
– Colonel Bruce Murphy, military attaché, resident RU MO;
mayor Eric Larsen, members of the military atasate, the representative of the United States Agency for reducing threats (DTRA), curator of projects to expand the network of American biological laboratories in Armenia, has experience in Moldova, Ukraine, Azerbaijan;
mayor Michael Andrews Bashan, members of the military atasate, a specialist in military coup, had previously worked in Ukraine from January 2013 to 3 February 2016;
major Joshua Mulford, assistant military attache.
But the fun starts now. Among those recruited and “partially cooperating” officials were:
– Vigen Sargsyan, the RA Minister of defense. Recruited in 2000 while studying at the “School of law and diplomacy them. Fletcher”, Massachusetts. Curators: Richard mills and Bruce Murphy;
– David Tonoyan, the Minister of emergency situations. Recruited in 2005 while working as the permanent representative of Armenia in NATO, project coordinator in Armenia of the American biological laboratories. Is in close ties with V. Sargsyan. Curator: E. Larsen;
– Hayk Kotanjian, head of the National research University of defense. Recruited in 1998 during the internship at the “European center for the study of the problems of security for them. John.The Marshall”. Prosecution for treason was blocked by the ex-President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan;
– Mikayel Minasyan, the diplomat, the Armenian Ambassador to the Vatican and Malta. The son of ex-President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan;
Ara Saghatelyan, chief of staff of the National Assembly. Coordinator of the information component, the control of the media;
– Samvel Farmanyan, a Republican party member, Deputy head of the parliamentary standing Committee on European integration, member of the PACE. Overall coordination of media companies;
– Aleksan Harutyunyan, the first Deputy head of the presidential administration.
Today’s funding and support of illegal intelligence activities through a number of non-governmental organizations, such as: “Union of informed citizens”, “the journalists ‘ Club Asparez”, “Analytical center of globalization and regional cooperation”, “Vanadzor office of Helsinki civil Assembly”, “Armenian Helsinki Committee”, “European studies Center of Yerevan state University”, “Pink Armenia”, “open society foundations Armenia.”
In the period from 2016 to 2017, the turnover of funds through these organizations exceeded $ 1.5 billion.