Russia’s Sub Sale To The Philippines Would Stabilize The South China Sea

The Philippines is willing to go forward with a prospective Russian submarine deal despite heavy American pressure.

President Duterte rebuffed the earlier criticism of his plans that US Assistant Defense Secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs Randall Schriver warned “wouldn’t be a helpful thing to do in our alliance” by rhetorically asking “who are you to warn us?”, which was followed up by the Russian Embassy in the Philippines suggesting that Schriver’s statement “may point to an acute attack of colonial syndrome”. It was recently disclosed that Russia has already trained some of Duterte’s bodyguards and plans to do the same with some of his country’s naval personnel too, which would correspond to the possibility of Moscow selling Manila some of its state-of-the-art submarines that it’s already provided to nearby Vietnam.

Randall Schriver
US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs Randall Schriver in a roundtable press interview at the US Embassy in Manila

The US understands that its previous monopoly over its former colony’s military procurement needs is rapidly drawing to a close and that the purchase of big-ticket items such as submarines would lead to an extended relationship with Russia that would augur well for multipolarity, which is entirely against America’s interests, especially as it tries to “contain” China in the South China Sea. About that, some might wonder why Russia would sell submarines to the Philippines if these can only realistically be used against China one day in spite of Beijing being Moscow’s most trusted partner, but a closer look at the nuances of “military diplomacy” reveals the strategy behind this move.

Russia’s post-Cold War arms sales have interestingly been focused on maintaining the balance of power between different pairs of rivaling states, be they Armenia & Azerbaijan, India & China, or China & Vietnam, with the most recent opportunities being with Turkey & Syria, Saudi Arabia & Iran, Pakistan & India, and possibly also the Philippines & China. The guiding concept is for Russia to retain the strategic state of affairs between each of these rivaling pairs in order to prevent the US from decisively shifting the balance one way or another in favor of its preferred partner and therefore encouraging a military conflict or some degree of brinksmanship that it could later exploit.

PhilippinesRussia’s prospective submarine sale to the Philippines would sideline the US Navy and therefore lay the basis for making Moscow, and not Washington, Manilla’s long-term military partner in this regard. The resultant elevation of Russia’s regional status in the South China Sea, when taken together with its already solid military and energy partnerships with Vietnam, could conceivably enable Moscow to exert restraining influence on Hanoi and Manilla in order to constructively contribute to a peaceful settlement of their maritime delineation issues with Beijing. It’s an admittedly ambitious strategy at this point, but it’s nevertheless a step in the right direction of gradually diminishing the US’ regional influence and is therefore more helpful than harmful to China’s interests.

The post presented is the partial transcript of the CONTEXT COUNTDOWN radio program on Sputnik News, aired on Friday Aug 24, 2018:

DISCLAIMER: The author writes for this publication in a private capacity which is unrepresentative of anyone or any organization except for his own personal views. Nothing written by the author should ever be conflated with the editorial views or official positions of any other media outlet or institution.

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One Comment
  1. samir sardana

    INDIANS HAVE ALSO FORGED A SPECIAL BOND WITH VIETNAM IN THE SCS,AND NAVAL AND OIL AND GAS VENTURES

    Indians have NO LOCUS IN SCS in Vietnam.So what do they do ? They have a JV with PVN and ONGC in SCS to find gas in disputed waters – inviting the PLN and Chinese trawlers.to attack them

    What is the dream sequence ?

    The Indians conned the Vietnamese into believing the mythical skills of the Indian Navy !

    So in 2013,the Indians started training the Viets in “intensive” submarine and underwater warfare training in Indian Navy’s submarine school INS Satavahana in Vishakapatanam !

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-kicks-offs-sub-training-for-vietnamese-navy/articleshow/26172370.cms

    The target was the PLN !

    What was the outcome ?

    In less than 3 months,INS Sindhurakshak an Indian N-Sub BLEW up,in Dry Dock ? If it had been in the Pen – the entire sub fleet would have been wiped out (But that is left to the PLN).Has this EVER happened in any nation – even in WW 2 ?

    Then 2 years ago,India’s USD 3 billion nuclear-powered submarine,INS Arihant,was flooded with Sea Water ! SEA WATER ! Not Heavy Water !

    THE VIETS AND INDIANS ARE MADE FOR EACH OTHER !

    Then in 2020,the IAF decided to TRAIN THE VIET AIR FORCE SUKHOIS ! SUKHOIS !

    This is when the Sukhois of the IAF were brought down by Chinese EMP near the Chinese border – on many occasions !

    It is the destiny of doom which has brought together India and Vietnam !

    Let them perish together !

    What was the spiel sold to the Viets by the Indians – w.r.t their 5000 year old common history and lineage ?

    Spiel 1 – There was a Hindoo Champa Kingdom in Central Vietnam ,a long time ago ! It is True ! But SO WHAT ?

    Spiel 2 – There are Shiva Phallic temples STILL in Central Vietnam ! It is True ! But SO WHAT ?

    Spiel 3 – The Story of Ramayana exists in Vietnam also ! BUT RAMA TOOK 12 YEARS TO MAKE A BRIDGE TO LANKA TO
    SAVE HIS WIFE ! HE DIO NOT USE A NAVY ! AND HIS ARMY AND THE MEN WHO MADE THE BRIDGE WERE ALL APES !
    The Viets DID NOT read the Ramayana ! Y DID RAMA NOT USE THE NAVY ? THE VEDAS SAY THAT HINDOOS SHOULD
    “NOT CROSS THE SEA” NOR GO UNDER THE SEA NOR FLOAT ON THE SEA !

    Y ? Read the news on INS Sindhurakshak !

    What is the status of Vietnam ?

    The manufacturing which is UNVIABLE in PRC gets OUTSOURCED to Vietnam.That is the TRUTH ! What is the cost of this LOW END MANUFACTURING AND AGENT ORANGE ? The entire industry of the Viets and a bulk of the population is NEAR the sea coast.The sea coast is receding and if PLN detonates a few Nukes underwater in the SCS at the right time – Vietnam will cease to exist.

    If PRC can cause Art Rain – then to CAUSE A TSUNAMI in the middle of a TYPHOON,is easy cake,using SCALAR and other
    weapons.That will also take care of the ONGC rigs in the SCS and all the standing ships in dock and subs in pens.dindooohindoo

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