The recent threats of nuclear attacks from Israel to Iran have created colossal tension, and Iran is under immense pressure. As a matter of fact, Isreal, the US, and their allies are blaming Iran for building nuclear facilities and using it as an excuse to attack Iran. Significantly, the US is the only country, who has a record of using nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state – Japan in 1945. Iran is a non-nuclear state, and nuclear states are threatening Iran.
Iran has already withstood irrational sanctions for three years under Trump Administration. Trump one-sidedly withdrew from the deal in May 2018 and has done everything to completely demolish it, like the assaination of General Sulemani, including slapping very depleting last-minute sanctions on Iran in December 2020 before leaving the white house.
Although America got isolated on the western world issue and as predicted, Iran went into a strategic convergence with China and Russia. But the collaboration between Israel and the US is rather dangerous; it is possible that the US may not appear in front but back Israel from behind the stage.
The recent attack of Iran’s nuclear plant and the assassination of a nuclear scientist reflected their intentions.
Previous US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo alleged that Iran had become Al Qaeda’s new “home base, and it was time for America and all free nations to destroy the Iran-Al Qaeda axis. These allegations were made without providing any valid shreds of evidence. Iran rejected the comments as warmongering lies”.
President Obama’s most outstanding success was the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015. According to the deal, Iran agreed to restrict enriching and accept more robust monitoring for relief from sanctions. In 2018, the US, under President Trump, withdrew from the JCPOA. The withdrawal was primarily triggered by Saudi Arabia and Israel’s growing weary of Iran’s interjection in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. On President Trump’s withdrawal from the deal, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei vowed Iran would not accept “the simultaneous restrictions of its economy and its nuclear program.”
Iran has been emboldened; however, it continues to exercise strategic restraint while responding to American provocations and sending poignant messages to America in general and the region in particular.
In January 2020, Qassim Solemani, the influential leader of Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, was assassinated by the US. The Iranian response to the Ayn al Asad military base’s strike was a measured, restrained response. In November 2020, Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed in Tehran’s brazen attack. Iran held Israel responsible for it but decided not to respond instantly. It is a common consensus that US withdrawal from JCPOA has only made the region’s conflict matrix more volatile.
President Biden has expressed that he would rejoin the agreement and use a renewed commitment to diplomacy to work with allies to strengthen and extend it while pressuring Iran against its regional activities. The optimism on the American side to negotiate a better agreement are, at least for now, unrealistic. The suspicion for the US in Iran runs high. Both are cramp and lengthening Iran’s nuclear constraints will not be easy. Iran may want to return to JCPOA to ease its economic sanctions; it is in a state of double jeopardy because of the pandemic. However, Iran is a resilient state. It takes great pride in its ability to resist western pressure autarkic “resistance economy to Hassan Rouhani’s policy it is a resilient state. It takes great pride in its ability to resist western pressure. To the Iranian hardliner, its economic health is of lesser significance than its security, ideological purity, and national aspirations. Many of them prefer an autarkic “resistance economy” to Rouhani’s nuclear cooperation policy with the West.
Israel’s top generals have responded to Biden’s plans by taking their gloves off. The top generals warned attack plans against Iran were being revised and said any US return to the 2015 nuclear accord with Tehran would be wrong. Such annotations publicly by Israel’s military top brass on American policy are rare and never without a pre-approval by the Israeli government. One of Netanyahu’s ministers said publicly if the US rejoins the nuclear deal, which Biden believes lies in the US national interest – Israel will go to war. The
situation becomes more confusing with a newly appointed Secretary of State Antony Blinken, declaring on record that the US was “a long way” from deciding whether to join a nuclear deal with Iran, and It would need to see what Tehran indeed did to resume complying with the historic pact.
It seems that the conflicting statements by the US new administration are part of policy to confuse Iran, sending optimistic signals while simultaneously planning adverse actions.
The international community may take serious notice of the situation before it is too late.