On Monday, 21 March, AP reported that “Zelenskyy said that Kyiv will be ready to discuss the status of Crimea and the eastern Donbas region held by Russian-backed separatists after a cease-fire and steps toward providing security guarantees.” This milestone is the very first time that Zelensky has said that there might be circumstances under which “the status of Crimea and the eastern Donbas region held by Russian-backed separatists” could even possibly be negotiated by Ukraine’s government. All Ukrainian-government leaders, after U.S. President Barack Obama perpetrated in Ukraine a violent coup which overthrew Ukraine’s democratically elected President and installed a U.S.-controlled rabidly anti-Russian government in Ukraine in February 2014, have said that Ukraine will never consider the status of those two former regions of Ukraine to be negotiable.
So: Zelensky is now saying that “after a cease-fire and steps toward providing security guarantees,” Zelensky would negotiate “the status of Crimea and the eastern Donbas region held by Russian-backed separatists.” This is the first major change-in-position by EITHER side in the present conflict, and the fact that it is being made by Ukraine is indisputable proof that militarily Russia is winning the war.
In other words: after a “cease-fire,” Ukraine would be in the weaker position, and, in that position, would then find itself obligated (by what Zelensky has just now said on this matter) to negotiate its acceptance that neither of those two regions is any longer a part of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine’s government would then be demanding from Russia’s Government “security guarantees.” Ukraine’s government would be requiring these “security guarantees” no longer from the U.S. Government (NATO), but instead from Russia’s Government.
Russia’s Government had invaded Ukraine on February 24th for two reasons: (1) to permanently block Ukrainian membership for Ukraine in the anti-Russian military alliance NATO; and, (2) to “denazify” Ukraine. The current breakthrough (“Zelenskyy said that Kyiv will be ready to discuss the status of Crimea and the eastern Donbas region held by Russian-backed separatists after a cease-fire and steps toward providing security guarantees”) opens the door to achieving (1); however, the deeper, and continuing deadlock is (2) denazification of Ukraine. In my news-report on March 21, “Why The Question Of Which Side Is ‘nazi’ Blocks Any Peace Settlement”, was explained WHY that issue is so extremely unlikely to be able to be agreed-upon between Zelensky and Putin — and, therefore, why Russia will either have to accept defeat in this war, or else defeat Ukraine 100% militarily before there will be any capitulation by Ukraine in this conflict.
Since we now know that Russia is, at present, winning the war, the ONLY possibility by which Ukraine will be able to impose capitulation on Russia is by reversing the current military reality.
In any case, however, this is an extremely interesting situation. If Russia wins this conflict, then the post-World-War-II domination of the world by the United States will have definitively ended. However, if Ukraine wins it, then Russia will have to accept that, ultimately, it will become conquered by the U.S., and that the only agency remaining for Russia’s Government will be to decide whether that defeat will come by a peaceful capitulation, or, instead, by a world-annihilating WW III.
Reposts are welcomed with the reference to ORIENTAL REVIEW.
NATO has achieved its aims.It Pushed UKR and Provoked Putin into war
NATO wanted to ramp up troops and tech near Russia – and now they had the excuse,and they have done the deed.
In addition,moving the armour and men to Russian neighbors,provides the cover to airlift weapons to Zelinksy
And that is Y,the war will NEVER end,as Zelinsky has DUG in,,even w/o NATO jets and missiles ! Putin has got what he wanted – the South and East
And NATO HAS GOT THE EXCUSE,FOR A PERMANENT RAMP UP !
WIN-WIN-WIN !
WHEN ALL THREE WIN – THERE ARE NO NEGOTIATIONS,AND NO END TO A WAR !
Putin has ALREADY LOST FX RESERVES and HAS HUGE TRACTS OF UKR LAND – WHICH IS MANY TIMES MORE VALUABLE THAN LOSS OF RUSSIAN EXPORTS.LOSS OF RUSSIAN EXPORTS IS NOT A LOSS – AS THE MINERALS ARE IN THE GROUND ! SO PUTIN DOES NOT NEED A COMPROMISE
ZELINSKY HAS SAVED KIEV & WITH NATO AID,WILL PRESS INTO THE EAST.HE CANNOT GIVE UP CRIMEA & DONBASS (as he has no mandate ) .SO NO DEAL and NO COMPROMISE .
ON TOP OF THAT PUTIN HAS PUT EU ON NOTICE TO CUT OFF GAS – BY ASKING FOR ROUBLES PAYMENT FOR GAS
This is STEP 1 to the Yuan Float,and Reserve currency
The Putin game is that,importers will have to BUY Roubles !
That will APPRECIATE THE ROUBLE,to offset the recent crash !
Roubles can come only,by exports to Russia !
That will obviate the EXPORT BAN,ON RUSSIA !
Alternatively,foreign banks will borrow Roubles, from the Russian Central Bank (which will mint them), & lend it to the importers – buying from Russia.
Then Russia will import from the world,also in Roubles – thereby closing out the above debt.
Ultimately,one fine day,it will be swapped by the Chinese Yuan.BUT THAT WILL STRENGTHEN THE YUAN,AND COLLAPSE THE USD
SO BEFORE THAT,EMPEROR XI HAS TO START OFFLOADING USD DEBT – AND ONCE IT IS LIQUIDATED SUFFICIENTLY, PUTIN WILL SWITCH OUT TO THE YUAN.
IT IS NOT BEYOND THE REALM OF SPECULATION,FOR CHINA & RUSSIA TO MINT A NEW CURRENCY & FOR MANY OTHER NATIONS TO ACCEPT THIS NEW CURRENCY – PREDICATED ON THE CHINESE AND RUSSIAN GDP &MINERAL RESERVES,.
All said and done,there was no way that Zelinsky could have saved the East.
He has successfully stopped Putin at the doors of Kiev
If he gets jets,missiles and soldiers from NATO- then he can slowly take back cities,in the East,street by street.
Zelinsky has played the role of David – better than Davd of the Hebrew Bible.The David of the Bible – got lucky with a slingshot – but Zelinsky has just used his brains !
There is only 1 weakness of Russia – it is the supply chain and logistics – which is Y, Putin has stopped,and is digging in !
Now EITHER PUTIN MOVES IN FROM BELARUS
OR
Zelinsky gets milit aid and moves into the East
EITHER WAY, THE EXTRAORDINARY PEOPLE OF UKRAINE DESERVE EU MEMBERSHIP !
THE FACT IS THAT EU CONSIDER TURKS AND UKRAINE – TO BE “NOT EQUALS”.TURKS ARE MUSLIMS – BUT THE UKRANIANS ARE “THEIR OWN” !
This is the EXODUS from the East and Kiev
Putin’s army is DUG in,and will NOT move WEST.It will just focus on Kiev win
It is impossible to move the Russian Logistics chain,to Western UKR
The way to move west,is from Belarus.
BUT FOR BELARUS TO ENTER INTO WESTERN UKR – THERE HAS TO BE A PRETEXT,OR AN EXCUSE.
THUS WE NEED A FALSE FLAG – WHICH WILL HAPPEN SOON ! dindooohindoo
BUT IF BELARUS COMES IN – IT PROVES AN EXCUSE TO A UKRANIAN ALLY,TO ALSO JOJN IN THE WAR.
THE STRATEGEM OF USING THE BELARUS THRUST – IS TO SEND IN RUSSIAN SOLDIERS,FROM BELARUS.
THUS,YOU HAVE A SQUEEZE FROM THE EAST AND THE WEST – AND THE WESTERN THRUST,AIMS TO CUT NATO SUPPLY LINES.
IN BETWEEN THE EAST AND THE WEST – YOU WILL HAVE AN “”EXODUS CORRIDOR”