Observers are split over Russia’s decision to scale down its forces near Kiev as part of a goodwill trust-building gesture during the latest stage of talks with this former Soviet Republic. They were initially deployed as part of Moscow’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine and immediately prompted plenty of predictions that Russia wanted to seize that country’s capital. No such outcome has been achieved though and the miles-long convoy that’s assembled on its outskirts reportedly hasn’t moved forward in a while. These developments led many to believe that Russia failed to achieve what they thought was one of its most crucial military objectives in this campaign.
Some urgent clarification is in order so as to help others understand what’s really happening right now. It was always nothing more than pure speculation to predict that Russia wanted to capture Kiev. None of those country’s officials ever publicly claimed such a goal, but advancing their forces closer towards the Ukrainian capital split their opponent’s military focus and enabled the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) to make rapid gains elsewhere in the country along its eastern and southern fronts. The bulk of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) and their ethno-fascist militia allies are thought to be concentrated in Donbass, which the Russian Defense Ministry just said is the focus of the conflict’s second phase.
Ukraine’s military infrastructure and that of its related industrial complex have been utter destroyed by the RAF over the past month. The UAF’s divide between defending their positions in Donbass and Kiev led to the loss of large parts of Southern Ukraine. The northern and eastern fronts practically split into two separate ones from the UAF’s perspective since they can’t reliably resupply them with one another’s assets. Russia’s decision to tactically scale down its focus on Kiev simultaneously with doubling down on the Donbass front appears not to have been a hasty move in response to so-called “Ukrainian resistance” like the US-led Western Mainstream Media claims but a preplanned strategic maneuver.
Observers should remember that one of the officially stated goals of the special operation is to liberate the newly recognized Donbass Republics so it therefore follows that this was always a priority for the RAF. Nevertheless, focusing so much on it immediately into the campaign would have possibly resulted in large losses for them as well as unacceptable civilian casualties and collateral damage due to the major concentration of the UAF there. Russia therefore seemed to have decided to dilute their capabilities by distracting the rest of their opponents through their false advance on Kiev, which they never wanted to capture in the first place.
This explains the miles-long convoy that they dispatched en route to the Ukrainian capital in order to ensure that the UAF prioritized defending that city at the expense of reinforcing their positions along the Donbass front. While this was happening, the RAF destroyed Ukraine’s military infrastructure and that of its related industrial complex in order to soften up its opponents’ positions in Donbass by de facto splitting them off from the rest of the country ahead of their preplanned focus on that front during the second ongoing stage of this campaign. Should this have been the strategy all along, then it’s being executed almost flawlessly.
The reason why so many got it so wrong is because one of the cleverest elements of the US-led information warfare against Russia had been to indoctrinate its targeted audience with false expectations about Moscow’s military goals in order to subsequently spin any subsequent development as a so-called “loss”. The reality however is altogether different since it’s actually Kiev that’s experienced major losses along the entire southern front as well as parts of the northern and eastern ones too. That last-mentioned front is now the focus of the second phase of Russia’s special operation and seems bound to fall out of Kiev’s control in the coming future in accordance with Moscow’s official objective.
Going forward, those who sincerely aspire to understand the fast-moving and sometimes unclear military developments associated with Russia’s special operation in Ukraine should always rely on a multitude of sources and use their discretion in assessing which ones are most accurate. Simply listening to Kiev and its Western patrons won’t suffice since those two have an interest in shaping an alternative reality totally disconnected from the actual one. Those who’ve been influenced by them are probably convinced that Russia already lost the conflict since it didn’t capture Kiev even though anyone who’s objectively covered this operation should have known that the Ukrainian capital wasn’t its objective.
Source: One World
Yes I understand that confirmation bias leads people to typically seek out information that confirms not only the rightness of their cause, but a victory for their side. Yet that also applies to supporters of the Russia side.
On the one hand you say “It was always nothing more than pure speculation to predict that Russia wanted to capture Kiev.” Unless you have inside knowledge of intentions of Russia leadership, presuming Russia never wanted to capture Kiev is also “pure speculation”.
Yes, Russia attacked on many fronts, including Kiev; this did split Ukraine’s forces and prevented them from focusing on eastern Ukraine. Yet they also split or dispersed Russian forces, allowing local superiority for the Ukraine side in many areas. A better strategy would have been to not deploy significant forces in western Ukraine, and lure Ukraine’s forces into eastern Ukraine–where Russia has (slightly) more political support and (surely) shorter supply lines. Such a focus on a smaller area would allow greater concentration of Russia forces. If that had happened, almost the entire Ukraine military could have been encircled in a two-pronged strategy similar with the encirclement of Stalingrad.
More likely (but still speculation), Russia underestimated the resistance and over-estimated the abilities of the Russian military. A military that has not had extensive ground combat experience in about 30 years, and which relies on a top-down strategy instead of lower-level initiative. This requires high level Russian officers to lead from the front in order to see what is going on, communicate with local forces and ensure compliance with directives; which explains in part why so many Russian generals have died.
Russia entered the war without sufficient stockpiles of precision-guided bombs and modern secure communications gear. Now I’m worried that the Russian military will be depleted, rendering them less useful in counter-Jihad campaigns like in Syria or against Iran. Perhaps the outcome will be, Russia’s lack of contributions will be similar with Germany’s; will both expect to free-ride on the already-overburdened US military?
Yea it was. And watch for Diversion Chapt 2 as all the CNN “experts” and Uks run around saying victory! as the Russians move south.
Putin attacked the Kiev (King),with pawns (Infantry) and Rooks (Tanks)
Zelinsky had no Horses (Choppers),no Rooks (Tanks) & No Bishops (Migs) and No Queen (Ballistic Missiles).But Zelinsky had Urban Cover (which is like sealing off some boxes of the chess board,for the Russian pawns and rooks)
So we had a stale mate – but Putin pulverised the chess board.The Chess game was the diversion.The critical mass of pawns & rooks of Russia,are in UKR – & now,they are off to the REAL CHESS BOARD OF DONBASS – where the chess board,is made by Putin,and there is no player opposite him,
Putin had to exit – as spring cometh,& Putin has to place his rooks and bishops & horses on the Donbass chessboard – else,the spring & rains,will delete many boxes,of the chessboard.
Donbass is where the UKR is well entrenched & if Putin encircles them,cuts off the supply chain & pounds them – he will get a surrender
This might be the place where Putin will use Tactical Nukes or Biological weapons.
A few months ago, the West had sponsored a Orange Revolution in Kazak
Kazak,Ukraine and Russia
What is common in these 3 ?
GAS !
If Gas supplies are disrupted in EU – the Alt is LNG – and who will profit the most ?
ONLY 1 COUNTRY ! dindooohindoo
Putin is drawing down on Kiev and is now on the verge of a massive onslaught in Donbass
Reason
1 month has passed
Putin needs a BIG WIN
And Putin needs some BiG CARDS TO PLAY WITH
Spring is coming and it makes no sense to spread armor all over the place
Russian armor is safer in Donbass than anywhere else
Also,now is the time to be closer to the Russian border – to reduce the logistics time and distance – and also near the port (Mariupol) to open the shipping lanes for military logistics.
The shipping port is key to Putin;s logistics hedge
If UKR takes it – it will blow a big hole
Putin has to take it fast and secure the port
If NATO supplies Anti-ship missiles to UKR ,then food and fuel ships will be sitting ducks
Putin has ALREADY TAKEN THE WAR TO NATO – by asking for Roubles for Gas.
That is STEP 1 of the Russian attack on EU and NATO.People in EU can live w/o oil and gas or less gas – BUT INDUSTRY – and then its impact on jobs – and then,govtt revenues…….
Putin is taking the EU to the point of Economic ruin – like what NATO is doing to Russia – before the ACTUAL WAR IS DECLARED.THE BET IS THAT EUROPEAN PEOPLE WILL NOT WANT A WAR (ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT CROP – WHO DID NOT SEE THE HELL OF WW 1 AND WW 2.THEY WILL PROBABLY NOT SURVIVE OIL AND GAS RATIONING)
The UKR-Russia war is NOT WW3
It is the start of WW1, on the USD .Putin is building the coalition – targetting the nations with USD reserves
They are ones who will break the 1st
And 2 of them,want to break off, from the USD – id.est., PRC and Saudia
Once these 2 nations get on board – the whole world ,will fall in line – excluding North America and EU.
And then,the West will try to save the Dollar – and when they know that, it is not possible – then you will have WW3 !
That is the movie – with no happy ending !
The Fatal flaw of America and the EU, is the DOLLAR OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA – which Putin and Emperor Xi have just realised.dindooohindoo