De-dollarization is one of the most impactful trends of the global systemic transition to multipolarity, having predated the latest US-provoked phase of the Ukrainian Conflict half a year ago but unprecedentedly accelerating since then. Most observers predicted that China would take the lead in this respect, but India unexpectedly ended up playing this role instead as confirmed by BRICS International Forum President Purnima Anand while speaking to reporters on Wednesday. According to her, “We have implemented the mechanism of mutual settlements in rubles and rupees, and there is no need for our countries to use the dollar in mutual settlements. And today a similar mechanism of mutual settlements in rubles and yuan is being developed by China.”
The author predicted in early August that “India’s De-Dollarization Of Its Trade With Russia Will Inspire The Whole Global South”, which came to pass earlier than anyone could have foreseen. That rising multipolar Great Power had already earlier employed yuan for facilitating its bilateral trade with its special and privileged Russian strategic partner but now it’s ready to rely on national currencies to that end. The reason why India prioritized the implementation of this mechanism is because its visionary leadership understands the pivotal role that de-dollarization plays in the ongoing systemic transition, especially when it comes to breaking the “petrodollar’s” monopoly on the oil trade like its shared Russian and Iranian partners are poised to do pending their speculative swap pact.
Anand’s announcement very strongly suggests that India’s purchase of discounted Russian oil, which has already unprecedentedly exploded by a factor of fifty since February, will therefore exclusively be conducted in rubles and rupees. Nevertheless, this forecast doesn’t mean that India is against America since it’s actually carefully balancing between the US-led West’s Golden Billion and the BRICS-led Global South. Furthermore, it shares that declining unipolar hegemon’s concerns about China’s astronomical rise to superpower status in what can be described as the present bi-multipolar intermediary phase of the global systemic transition to more complex multipolarity. As such, nobody should speculate that India is about to dump the US despite having expressed its intent to build the Asian Century with China.
To explain, India’s leadership of the global de-dollarization trend is meant to gradually reform the economic-financial basis of International Relations towards a more equal, fair, and just future, which while dealing a powerful blow to America’s declining unipolar hegemony, doesn’t imply completely eliminating that superpower’s role in managing China. Rather, all that Delhi desires is to maximize its strategic autonomy in all respects, without which it’ll perpetually remain at risk of becoming one of those two’s “junior partner”. It’s indeed possible for India to independently defend its economic-financial interests vis a vis the US while still coordinating with it to a certain extent in deterring what its leadership regards as the credible scenario of China advancing its regional interests in a zero-sum way.
So as not to have the preceding sentence misunderstood or maliciously misportrayed, the author doesn’t share the Indian leadership’s assessment of China’s intentions but nevertheless acknowledges that Delhi formulates policy based on that perspective. Moving along, India’s leading role in the global de-dollarization trend in parallel with attempting to repair its strategic relations with the US that its partner unilaterally worsened throughout the course of unsuccessfully pressuring it to dump Russia is meant to solidify its status as a truly neutral Great Power. To that end, it hopes to leverage this perception in order to assemble a new Non-Aligned Movement (“Neo-NAM”) for facilitating its dual-tripolarity grand strategy that can be read about in detail via that hyperlinked analysis.
To simplify this complex confluence of processes that some might misinterpret as mutually exclusive, India sincerely regards itself as an independent pole of influence in the emerging Multipolar World Order, albeit one that’s currently relying on a trilateral strategic partnership with Russia and Iran in order to jointly maximize their strategic autonomy during the present bi-multipolar intermediary phase of the global systemic transition. All three stand to gain through the success of India’s grand strategic ambitions to balance the American and Chinese superpowers through the simultaneous implementation of its Asian Century and de-dollarization goals respectively, which will in turn further shape the contours of the aforementioned transition so as to create more opportunities for everyone.
Had India declined cooperating with China in building the Asian Century or ceded leadership of the global de-dollarization trend to it, then one superpower (the US or China respectively) would have had the grand strategic edge over the other, but instead India has come to play an irreplaceably pivotal role in managing their worldwide competition over the future of the systemic transition. Aspiring for the Asian Century will prevent America from reasserting its declining unipolar hegemony over that continent, while leading the global de-dollarization trend prevents China from ever speculatively countenancing the scenario of leveraging that role for itself in any zero-sum way that could be exploited at the expense of India’s interests like its leadership is so worried about possibly happening one day.
Those who might criticize India’s balanced approach towards both superpowers should understand that the alternative is to support one over the other, which would inevitably increase the odds that the global systemic transition will become even more chaotic than it presently is, thus potentially leading to mutually detrimental outcomes for everyone. Proponents of both superpowers understandably wish that India sided with their geopolitical role model over its rival, but it’ll never do so since that would result in it becoming their de facto “junior partner”, which is something that this rising Multipolar Great Power would never accept. With this in mind, it makes perfect sense why India is simultaneously advancing the Asian Century scenario while also leading the global de-dollarization trend.
Source: One World