At the midterm elections to the U.S. Congress on November 8, the Republican Party won the House of Representatives, and the fight for the Senate will continue in December. The Democrats did not lose as expected, but they lost control of funding and investigations. The strongest impact of the election could be on the figure that was not formally part of it – Donald Trump.
The 2022 midterm elections are one of the most intense electoral races in the history of the United States. Even the most loyal U.S. citizens already have a lot of questions about the results. Republicans do not trust the results in advance, and they have every reason to be skeptical. The falsification of the results of the 2020 election did not go unnoticed. Now the plans of the globalists and the future of the entire Biden family are at stake. Corruption scandals and a dubious position in the Ukrainian company Burisma could be the reasons for the collapse of the career of the American head of state.
Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated: once he wins a majority in Congress, the Republicans will begin impeachment proceedings. Given the history two years ago, it’s hard to accuse Trump of bias, and about 70% of Republican voters didn’t believe the results.
Two years ago, in several key states for the presidential election – Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – the main irregularities were directly related to postal vote. Then Biden’s victory was marred by the mass appearance of “postal” ballots, some of which had been cast by long-dead citizens.
One of the reasons that could have significantly affected the outcome of the current congressional elections was the new electoral map. This is the first election since another redistricting that took place last year. And both parties have tried quite hard to reduce the number of swing districts – where real competition is possible. Consequently, the number of districts where Republicans had a chance to win decreased.
The election results caused a split in the parties
The Republicans won the majority in the House of Representatives, but there was no large-scale transition of leadership of the chamber to them. The original expectation was that the Republican victory would be “extraordinary”, and the House of Representatives would be fully controlled by them. However, a significant number of Democrats retained their seats there.
Moreover, the left-wing Democrats, who are the exact opposite of the right-wing Republicans, are very well positioned. It turns out that the House of Representatives will not only be divided between the parties with a slight advantage for the Republicans, but it will also be divided ideologically, because the Democratic Party will retain a large percentage of its left wing.
Accordingly, the House of Representatives will be even more radicalized, and even more difficult to compromise. Thus, President Biden gets a divided Congress, which also has internal strife within its own party. There is a chance that the Democrats will keep the Senate, but then it turns out that the Republicans will not have all the policy tools they hoped to have to block the president’s policies. This means that the Republicans will become a tougher opposition party and it may turn out to be a Congress that is essentially dysfunctional.
It will be a Congress in which Biden will find it very difficult to negotiate his policies.
There is, of course, a silver lining. If the Senate does remain Democratic, it removes many of the difficulties for Biden in conducting domestic policy, such as setting the budget. It’s a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the rhetoric of the Republicans, who will have a slim majority, will become more radical, and on the other hand, the Democrats’ retention of significant options makes Biden not so bound for the next two years.
Trump was, he is, but will he be?
The main focus for Republicans right now is to prepare for the 2024 presidential election, and, accordingly, the importance of Trump is being discussed. The question is straightforward: who can be the leader in the Republican Party, and to what extent Trump is the figure who will ensure their victory. It is not yet possible to call this issue the culprit of the split in the party, but it is clear that different opinions are colliding when discussing it.
There is a group of the Republican members of the party, who originally supported Trump, continue to support him, and see him even as a possible presidential candidate. These are the so-called right-wing conservatives. Approximately 30 percent of the Republican Party supporters would like to see Trump as president again.
There is a moderate wing of the Republican Party that believes that it is necessary to define themselves, to develop a precise position. It is interesting that no one is openly accusing Trump of hurting the party and that everything must be done to prevent him from being the nominee.
So far, only Biden has pledged that he will do anything to keep Trump from being president. None of the Republicans are saying that. So far, this is, one might say, the undeclared position of part of the Republican Party.
There are members of the Republican Party who believe that it was Trump who won the victory, though not as much as expected, that the Republicans won. But there are also those who, on the contrary, believe that Trump’s excessive influence in the party was the reason for the weak victory. It turns out that Trump’s figure does cause a split in the party.
Anti-Trump influence will grow
There are Republican congressmen who won the election without Trump’s help, without leaning on him, and he did not advocate for them. These are members of that part of the Republican Party who see no place in the party for Trump. They believe that he has been and gone, and his influence should stop there, and the party needs to move on. The more such lawmakers who win without Trump’s help or even in spite of him, the greater their influence within the party will be.
Over the next few months, their influence within the party could grow and become significant. Much will be revealed by Trump’s announcement on November 15, where he promises to give his views on his possible participation in the presidential election of 2024. For now, we can only assume that the more “anti-Trumpists” there are, the deeper the split in the party will become.
The elections gave an ambiguous result. With such a split within the ruling parties, it is difficult to predict the future policy of Washington. This is especially true of foreign policy.
Still, it is too early to make definitive predictions, especially since the outcome of the Senate elections is not yet completely clear. It cannot be ruled out that the Republicans may succeed in gaining control of the Senate. But even if they don’t, and the current 50/50 situation persists, Vice President Kamala Harris has her vote.
The election did not bring the Biden administration – and Americans themselves – hope for two quiet years. The Biden administration is in for a rough ride. Not everything is so clear-cut.