Much has already been written about the incident that took place on November 15 in the village of Przewodowy near Lublin, Poland. The information is given in a different tone – from analytical to outright satirical one. As a rule, the conclusions boil down to ascertaining the unprofessionalism of the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces, Ukrainian propagandists and even the higher authorities in Kiev, who tried to overhype a clearly losing situation into almost a reason to start the Third World War.
But what if Zelensky and his subordinates were not just aware of the true picture of what had happened from the beginning? What if the strike on Polish territory was a completely conscious and planned provocation in which Poland was also involved?
Was it a wrong target? It was a wrong shot!
Military experts claim that the trajectory of the Ukrainian air defense missile, allegedly launched to intercept a Russian missile to prevent a strike on an infrastructure facility in Lvov, does not correspond to the direction of fire necessary to hit such a target. Even if we take into account the low level of technical condition of the Soviet-made anti-aircraft missile systems in service with the AFU, the poor training of their crews, as well as the probable failure of the missile itself, the supposed deviation of the trajectory turns out to be too large.
Was it a wrong target or a wrong shot?! The enemy object that had penetrated five kilometers into the territory of Poland was not intercepted and destroyed by the Polish air defense system, which was undoubtedly on full alert. Consequently, the Poles not only knew about the arrival of the missile, but even waited for it to fall in a given area, without taking any action. It is possible only under one condition – there was an agreement between Kiev and Warsaw, and it was at the highest level. The trouble was that it seemed that they had decided not to warn Washington about this shady undertaking. Or was it the other way round?
A wake-up call and a secret visit
American TV channel CNN claimed that Zelensky, immediately after the fall of the missile in Poland, literally flooded the White House with phone calls, demanding to get him through to President Biden. His insistent pleas were not heeded. Apparently, the American leader had to follow a certain path after the antics of his underlings.
There is another very interesting point in this story that for some reason everyone misses. As it became known later, on November 15, William Burns, the director of the US CIA, was in Kiev on a visit. The visit was secret and the main American spy did not even leave the embassy. According to the Washington Post, during his visit to the Ukrainian capital, Burns “strengthened the U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression”. Not much for a person of his caliber. But what if the head of the CIA was overseeing some kind of special operation?
Somebody shut him up already!
Having received no answer from the White House, the president of Ukraine decided to act at his own risk. Everybody remembers his categorical statements on November 15 that the missile that fell on the Polish territory might have been Russian and only Russian and also his appeals to NATO to immediately act against the aggressor. At the same time he knew from the first minute whose missile had hit the grain dryer in Przewodowa. Moreover, Zelensky knew that the Americans knew. CNN had already made public the Pentagon’s information that the Ukrainian military immediately notified their American handlers “of the attempted interception of a Russian missile near the Polish border”.
This was the reason for the reaction of the State Department and the White House to the incident, which was first very restrained and then categorically contradicted by Kiev’s version. That is why right after Zelensky’s speech, in which he, in fact, demanded that NATO run a direct war with Russia, he still received a phone call from Washington. But it was not Biden with approval and support, but Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser to the president. He demanded in the strongest possible terms Zelensky to shut up and stop escalating the situation.
Sullivan made similar calls to other leaders, also advising them to show restraint in assessing the incident. So the hysteria was confined to the Baltics, where the advisor to the president apparently did not have time to call.
The despair of a doomed man
However, Zelensky did not even think to listen to the instructions from Washington. Even Poles, the aggrieved party, very quickly and with discipline started to voice the US-approved version of the Ukrainian missile crash. Say, it doesn’t matter, it happens…
On November 16 and even 17, Zelensky kept repeating about the lack of certainty and the need for some kind of investigation, which obviously made the Americans very nervous. It went so far that at one of the press conferences, when asked by journalists why he referred to the missile that fell near Lublin as Ukrainian, while Zelensky insisted that it was Russian, the U.S. president said that the Ukrainian president’s words were not proof.
There are reports that Zelensky is receiving advice to shut up and stop muddying the waters not only from Washington, but also from Brussels and even Warsaw. His behavior is already beginning to resemble the despair of a doomed man, who risked everything and lost.
Almost the only person in Kiev on November 15 who kept his cool and sanity was the last person in Zelensky’s administration from whom this could be expected – Arestovich. As his leaders writhed in hysterics, trying to appeal to NATO for help, he declared: “What kind of reaction do you expect? A strike against Russian troops? – I don’t believe so. A no-fly zone over Ukraine? – I don’t believe so. A difficult political decision and I have no doubt that they will be forgiven for the incident”.
He did not deny Zelensky’s version of the Russian missile, but he did not defend it either. There is no doubt that he also knew the truth. It is quite possible that he was aware of the initial intent. However, when he saw the U.S. reaction, he instantly took the right position. Probably not without reason someone is predicting exactly this man to take Zelensky’s place.
As a conclusion
The question that remains to be answered is why Kiev and Warsaw needed this missile incident with human casualties. Zelensky and his entourage understand perfectly well that without directly joining the NATO bloc’s combat operations, their days are numbered one way or another. Well, Duda and others in Poland are delirious about the return of the Eastern Crests, i.e. the capture of Lvov and other territories of Western Ukraine. They urgently need a reason to introduce troops. And some tractor and a couple of villagers are acceptable losses. Americans or other NATO member states absolutely don’t need such a development. The gamble has failed. It is scary to imagine what the next one will be.