The “rolling back” of Iran’s “strategic depth” in the Levant will make Iraq an even greater priority for it, especially after al-Sadr’s victory and his consequent “balancing” of the Islamic Republic and the Wahhabi Kingdom that his country’s wedged between.
Israel is moving to repeat its triumph in 2003 when the Bush administration, US partisans of Israel, and dishonest US media pushed the nation into a war of pure aggression against Iraq. Israel emerged the victor from this unprovoked war and is trying to repeat its success again with Iran.
Invading Iran would not be easy. Iran has very little capability to project power beyond its borders. Its air force, artillery and tanks are decrepit. America controls the skies from Morocco to Afghanistan. Iran is vulnerable to raids and small incursions but subjugating this large, mountainous nation of 80 million would be very difficult.
Israel showed the world that it’s been able to cultivate a lot more indirect international support for its claim to Jerusalem as its capital than might have initially been expected.
War is an option for America to be rescued from plunging into an economic disaster and the monopoly of its currency. It may be an option for America to retain its pre-eminence but it’s certainly not an option for this civilization to be plunged into darkness.
Russia’s de-escalatory role will therefore be pivotal in determining the future of the proxy war between the West and Iran over Syria, but Moscow might ultimately have to “lean on” Damascus and “convince” it to make some “compromises” on Iran and Hezbollah’s post-Daesh military presence in the country.
Morocco is trying to present itself as a quadri-continental pivot state with the potential to become a regional trendsetter, hence why its decision to cut off ties with Iran is thought by the Saudis to be the first step in a forthcoming “chain reaction” of other African countries distancing themselves from the Islamic Republic too.
Looking beyond the failed (former) “state” of Libya that NATO destroyed in 2011, there are several other crises waiting to happen in Africa and which could serve as the trigger for a Migrant Crisis 2.0. The first one isn’t country-specific but deals with the continent’s woes in general.
President Putin is wise enough to know that Pandora’s Box can never be closed once it’s opened and that the opportunity for preventing that from happening passed a long time ago, but even if he’s unable to stop the world from descending further into chaos, he knows that he at least has an obligation to warn about it so that the global public can know who’s responsible for everything that happens afterwards.
Is there an exit door available for Trump? Yes, there is. The US Defence Secretary James Mattis said that the work to assess the intelligence on the alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria’s Douma is still in progress.
A US attack on Syria can distract attention from the stormy controversy that may arise if at this point Trump axes Mueller and derails the investigation against him.
If the US doesn’t leave Manbij, then they might end up clashing with any of Damascus’ forces – whether official or militia – who enter the area, which could be what the Kurds are counting on or possibly even conspiring with Washington to provoke.