The renewed diplomatic offensive that’s being waged against Iran’s regional interests might have a majorly unintended effect in strengthening Tehran’s political will to support its allied militias abroad.
What is possible is a Saudi-Iranian mutual accommodation, which would be useful for calming some of the ‘hotspots’ – similar to what happened in the case of the Taif accord ending the civil war in Lebanon.
It’s worthwhile to revisit the question of who has an interest in destabilizing Saudi Arabia right at the moment that it’s turning away from the US and towards Russia and China.
The United States’ regional strategies in the Middle East face multiple challenges and it needs strong nerves and robust realism not to overreact. Importantly, the temptation to display ‘muscular’ diplomacy must be curbed. Thus, the decision by the Trump administration on Monday to certify for the second time Iran’s compliance […]
It’s been an open secret in the Mideast for years now that Saudi Arabia and “Israel” have been cooperating with one another against their shared Iranian rival, and that this and their equally strategic ties with the US is what’s brought them together. However, due to political sensitivities on both […]
(Please read Part I, Part II, and Part III prior to this concluding piece) All of the previously acquired information from the three earlier parts allows one to form four phased scenario forecasts that help predict the contours and consequences of the US-Iran and Russia-Saudi Arabia ‘reorientations’. The first one […]
(Please read Part I and Part II prior to this article) Perceptions & Motivations The third part of the series deals with the perceptions and motivations behind the possible polar reorientations. Much can be discussed in terms of these broad topics, but for comprehension’s sake, they’re split into eight separate […]
(Please read Part I before this article) The second part of the article series speaks upon the Russian-Saudi relationship that’s emerging in the Mideast, and it proves that it’s really not all that surprising in retrospect when one considers the motivating factors (energy, ISIL, and the Iranian deal) that affect […]
Political developments are moving extraordinarily fast in the Mideast nowadays, with Russian and American diplomacy being the primary catalysts. Moscow has teamed up with Tehran to kick-start a new round of Syrian reconciliation talks, and it’s working with Riyadh in an effort to get the latter to agree to its […]
Referencing the US, a friend told me “Since the neo-cons (triumphalists) assumed power, they have brought down a great country the world knew down to an empire that only serves the interest of Jerusalem. What then is the fate of America?” I answered him that he should read Cullen Murphy’s […]
On April 13, 2015 Vladimir Putin lifted Russia’s ban on shipping S-300 antiaircraft defensive missile systems to Iran, self-imposed in 2010. Moscow and Tehran originally signed a contract to supply these systems back in 2007. At the time, the idea was to sell a number of Russia-manufactured S-300 divisions to […]
On the 4th of April 2015, and in the wake of the Saudi-led coalition attack on Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah gave an unprecedented speech in which he openly and overtly attacked Saudi Arabia and predicting its defeat in Yemen. In his previous public presentations, Nasrallah strongly […]