Trust Russian diplomacy to work on an approach that somehow connects the various dots in the jigsaw puzzle – Iran nuclear deal, sanctions against Iran, Syrian conflict, Israel-Iran tensions, US-Iran standoff, energy security and so on. The point is, Russia is uniquely placed – on talking terms with both the US and Israel on one side and Iran and Syria on the other side.
Clumsily attempting to manage a multinational war effect at the spur of the moment after an unexpected outbreak of hostilities might even hold the US back from its full potential, with it being much more effective just “going it alone” with its massive military instead of wasting time trying to get insignificant countries to jump on board with it.
Europe cannot cave in to US pressure, but it cannot realistically break ties with Washington when rejecting it, much less lay a claim to the mantle of global leadership. Europe simply wants more independence, which is already asking a lot, given the current state of world affairs. To achieve this, Europe needs to develop a more favorable balance of forces and interests.
Trump is testing Hybrid War technologies in Iran hoping to militarize the most extreme minority opposition groups against the government in surrounding the centrally located Persian majority with peripheral terrorist insurgencies.
Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin announced that his company signed a roadmap to invest the mind-numbingly large sum of $30 billion in the Iranian energy sector.
The renewed diplomatic offensive that’s being waged against Iran’s regional interests might have a majorly unintended effect in strengthening Tehran’s political will to support its allied militias abroad.
What is possible is a Saudi-Iranian mutual accommodation, which would be useful for calming some of the ‘hotspots’ – similar to what happened in the case of the Taif accord ending the civil war in Lebanon.
It’s worthwhile to revisit the question of who has an interest in destabilizing Saudi Arabia right at the moment that it’s turning away from the US and towards Russia and China.
The United States’ regional strategies in the Middle East face multiple challenges and it needs strong nerves and robust realism not to overreact. Importantly, the temptation to display ‘muscular’ diplomacy must be curbed. Thus, the decision by the Trump administration on Monday to certify for the second time Iran’s compliance […]
It’s been an open secret in the Mideast for years now that Saudi Arabia and “Israel” have been cooperating with one another against their shared Iranian rival, and that this and their equally strategic ties with the US is what’s brought them together. However, due to political sensitivities on both […]
(Please read Part I, Part II, and Part III prior to this concluding piece) All of the previously acquired information from the three earlier parts allows one to form four phased scenario forecasts that help predict the contours and consequences of the US-Iran and Russia-Saudi Arabia ‘reorientations’. The first one […]
(Please read Part I and Part II prior to this article) Perceptions & Motivations The third part of the series deals with the perceptions and motivations behind the possible polar reorientations. Much can be discussed in terms of these broad topics, but for comprehension’s sake, they’re split into eight separate […]