So long as the nuclear balance between Pakistan and India can be maintained, then a conventional military peace between the two Great Powers is assured, but the disruption of this equilibrium is dangerous for the entire world because of the encouragement that this could give either state to launch a first strike.
For the first time ever, after 17 years of war, Washington has agreed to take a seat at the negotiating table across from the Taliban, one on one. If the Americans really put their minds and backs into such negotiations, then this will be a major change in the US strategy for this war in Afghanistan.
The point is, US patience with Turkey seems to be wearing thin. Turkey is no longer a ‘swing’ state in the US’ Middle East strategies, given the poor state of Turkish-Israeli relations, Erdogan’s ‘pivot to Russia’ and the overall trust deficit in Turkish-American relationship.
During the Cold War, the pro-US states experienced a bloody precedent of illegal, secret repression. While it is clear that this system has been progressively dismantled in Europe, it has never been interrupted in the « Greater Middle East » although it has been transformed. The Benalla affair allows us to admit the possibility that this story is not yet over.
Direct western intervention in a major ground campaign seems unlikely. But the US and Israeli war plan would aim to totally destroy Iran’s infrastructure, communications and transport (including oil) crippling this important nation of 80 million and taking it back to the pre-revolutionary era.
The aggressive attacks launched by the Democrats, although those were intended as a measure to discredit Donald Trump, will ultimately come back to haunt them, once they themselves end up being blamed for the deteriorating sympathies toward the Democrats and the US on the part of America’s allies and partners — not to mention its competitors.
Khamenei’s speech makes it clear that in the pursuit of national interest, Iran will have to navigate its path on its own steam, as has been the case during its past 4-decade old history. The diplomacy will be supple but purposive (“wise and oriented”).
The Israeli bravado can only be seen as a desperate ploy to cover up its humiliating defeat in Syria with the terrorist groups that were its proxies surrendering lock, stock and barrel in Daraa and Quneitra to the Syrian-Russian forces – especially the hasty exfiltration of the controversial group known as the White Helmets to Jordan via Golan Heights with the logistical help from the Israeli military.
Is Vladimir Putin’s Russia a Wild West where Power can strip a billionaire of his fortune? Is Russia interfering with the United States electoral process? According to the US ruling class, these are questions which leave no room for doubt. And yet all it needed was for President Putin to propose that President Trump accept a mutual exchange of letters rogatory to see panic taking hold of Washington.
What we have been seeing is the fascinating spectacle of America’s war party and neocons clamoring to oust President Trump. Included in their ranks are most of the US media, led by the NY Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal and TV’s war parties, CNN and NBC.
This is exactly why the West decided to pull the White Helmets out of Syria. If they were taken prisoner, that would be a serious problem for Washington and its allies, since the members of that organization might have a lot to say once they were in front of the cameras.
Trump has repeatedly stressed that Russia and the US are the two biggest nuclear powers in the world, and thus the US must live in peace with Russia. On US-Russia relations, Trump is clearheaded. On the contrary, if the US is piling pressure on China today, it is because China, although an economic giant, is still a weak military power.