The solution, as Trump sees it, is to cut the UK off completely from the EU through a “hard Brexit” while working behind the scenes to support Poland and its allies in their efforts to “decentralize” the bloc, which his strategists believe could hinder the ongoing efforts to reach a free trade agreement between the EU and China.
‘The Others’ Alliances
Austria currently holds the EU’s rotating six-month presidency until the end of the year, meaning that Vienna veritably has agenda-setting powers that could therefore place the bloc on the course of developing a more pro-Israeli policy by 2019 that would dovetail with the US’ own.
The way in which Germany and France are refusing the right of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union demonstrates the fact that the EU is not simply a straight-jacket – it also goes to show that the Europeans still care as little about their neighbours as they did during the two World Wars.
Ironically, Trump’s evident hatred for Europe and calls by his neocon Praetorian Guard for the US to dominate the entire globe have made Europe turn away from its old subservience to Washington and talk about real independence. But building true Euro-armed forces will be frightfully expensive and politically fraught.
Poland has no direct influence on Western European affairs while France is capable of exerting its own in Central & Eastern Europe through its much more influential status in the EU, so any competition between the two is lopsided from the get-go. It’s difficult to avoid the optics of a rising EuroRealist power challenging the existing EuroLiberal dominance in the continent in practically all respects.
The possible convergence of the joint Indo-Japanese “Asia-Africa Growth Corridor” with China’s New Silk Road could see these two far-reaching visions entering into a “friendly competition” with one another to the developmental benefit of “Global South” states, thereby heralding a “Renaissance”.
Russian-Saudi relations are currently at their best-ever level in history, while Russia also enjoys excellent ties with the UAE and Yemen, so it’s sensible to see it play a neutral mediating role within the forthcoming UN-brokered talks, especially considering that the country is also a member of the Security Council.
The US-backed alliance between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel and Egypt to contain Iran does not make a new regional order. Erdogan will now assert Turkey’s leadership role in the Muslim Middle East. Importantly, he is known to champion the Muslim Brotherhood as the charioteer of a New Middle East.
The administration of the UNO had been hoping for a clash between the pro- and anti-Trump factions during the General Assembly. What actually happened was very different. While several States, including France, denounced the methods of the resident of the White House, Russia undertook an analysis of the Western alliance.
A good way to begin would be for the US to end its punishing economic warfare against North Korea and permanently halt its provocative military exercises each fall. But the US and Japan, are not eager to see Korea reunified into a powerhouse with 80 million industrious people. They will continue stirring the Korean pot.
The message from eastern Siberia was clear: Washington’s reckless hostility and bellicosity is causing its foes to band together. A full third of the Russian Army just moved from Europe to the Far East for the war games. The Chinese dragon of which Napoleon warned is awakening.
A compromise will probably be reached in the coming future whereby India earns a waiver from the US’ CAATSA sanctions per the National Defense Authorization Act of 2019’s clause that this is possible if it either reduces its overall purchase of Russian weaponry or cooperates with America on other issues critical to its strategic interests.