An arc of instability has appeared on Russia’s peripheral regions to the west and southwest — Belarus, Nagorno-Karabakh and Kyrgyzstan. These regions are vital to Russia’s national security and weakens its capacity to be a resurgent power on the world stage. Belarus is a de facto buffer zone for Russia […]
In the Karabakh War, contemporary law is contradictory depending on whether it is interpreted in terms of ownership of the territory or the self-determination of the people. Taking advantage of this equivocation, the Turkish people (i.e., both Turkey and Azerbaijan) have just attacked this territory, self-proclaimed independent (Artsakh) although de facto linked to Armenia.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s suggestion to deploy Russian peacekeepers and military observers into the universally recognized Azerbaijani territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and its seven surrounding districts under Armenian occupation pending both sides’ agreement raises the prospect of Moscow’s military intervention in this conflict, which is worthwhile examining since this scenario isn’t […]
It was a diplomatic coup for Russia to broker a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan since it restored Moscow’s relevance to the conflict, but for as positive of a development as this was, it’s uncertain whether it’ll last and will thus serve as a litmus test of exactly how much […]
Part I, Part II Caucasian chalk circle The United States and Russia are increasingly in each other’s crosshairs on the global stage, be it in the Arctic, the Black Sea or the Middle East. But they have joined hands with alacrity to take a common stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. […]
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict certainly had its origins in the dissolution of the USSR, but it was revived by the will of the Turkish president. It is unlikely that he took this initiative without first referring it to Washington. This is also what President Saddam Hussein did before invading Kuwait, falling by ambition into the trap set for him and causing his downfall.
Part I The German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in Berlin on October 2 that the European Union seeks a “constructive dialogue and a positive agenda” with Turkey. She had just returned to the German capital after a 2-day summit meeting of the EU countries in Brussels. Germany played a key […]
Russian interests are arguably best served by an Azerbaijani victory over Armenia since that would teach the Soros Color Revolution government in Yerevan a lesson about the futility of trying to “decouple” from Moscow, secure crucial trans-Azerbaijani trade corridors such as its North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) and the Chinese-Turkish Middle […]
Three days into the renewed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in the Transcaucasian region — also known as South Caucasus — it is becoming clear that the binary narrative dished out by western commentators of this being a Turkish-Russian clash of wills and strategies is either simply naive or purposively deceptive. The […]
Iran has an extremely rare opportunity to greatly improve its regional reputation by offering to host peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan to replace the failed OSCE Minsk Process, though it might experience intense Russian resistance if it opts for this course of action unless Tehran can convince Moscow that […]
The latest Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis has brought a lot of attention to Russian strategic calculations in the South Caucasus. Being Armenia’s mutual defense ally through the CSTO, observers fear that the uncontrollable escalation of the ongoing conflict could lead to the worst-case scenario of a clash between this bloc and NATO […]
Part I Why and when the mediations? A theoretical approach and practical experiences It is known from the theories of diplomacy and conflict resolutions that in principle conflicting parties are willing to start to resolve their differences when they are ready to forego unilateral means for attaining a settlement favorable […]