Much water has flown down the Euphrates since the 9th round of the Astana Process took place in May. Six months is a long time in politics – especially in Middle East politics. But, paradoxically, while Middle Eastern politics is in turmoil, the prospects for peace in Syria may have improved.
The real situation in the world today shows that there are too many doctrinal and military-technical obstacles preventing the complete and irreversible elimination of all nuclear weapons. There has also been no noticeable increase in the level of trust between nuclear-armed states, which all have different views on nuclear arms control and the doctrinal basis for their actual use.
It’s unclear at this moment whether that ancillary strategy will succeed with either of them, but it nevertheless can’t be discounted that it was part of the US’ motivation in granting them waivers. By temporarily withholding the full brunt of its sanctions, the US is giving Iran a few more months to consider whether its independent foreign policy is really worth the impending costs.
One of the main reasons for doing this appears to be the government’s plan to popularize the notion that Hezbollah is equivalent to the cartels prior to using this narrative as joint “justification” for more openly meddling in Iran’s domestic affairs and taking an even stricter approach towards the group’s activities in the Mideast.
Both partnered Great Powers have years of experience surviving under different manifestations of American pressure, though Iran certainly takes the cake from both of them when it comes to this, and all three will have to pool their collective resolve to resist the increased pressure that they’ll surely come under by the US if they do indeed go forward with these pipeline plans.
The administration of the UNO had been hoping for a clash between the pro- and anti-Trump factions during the General Assembly. What actually happened was very different. While several States, including France, denounced the methods of the resident of the White House, Russia undertook an analysis of the Western alliance.
Targeting Khuzestan was actually in hindsight a somewhat strategic action by the terrorists and their patrons because of the symbolic significance that could be extracted from this attack as it relates to perception management and infowars.
The confrontation which recently occurred in Lattakia may result in a complete global redistribution of the cards. Now we have to find out whether President Trump, currently in the middle of his election campaign, is capable of supporting his Russian counterpart, in order that the United States and Russia may sanction the colonial powers as they did in 1956, during the Suez crisis.
Iraq is in the midst of a worsening multisided domestic crisis that contradicts “conventional” thinking about the country’s most well-known fault lines, and it’s very possible that it might become the “next Syria” if its many problems aren’t properly resolved soon enough.
A compromise will probably be reached in the coming future whereby India earns a waiver from the US’ CAATSA sanctions per the National Defense Authorization Act of 2019’s clause that this is possible if it either reduces its overall purchase of Russian weaponry or cooperates with America on other issues critical to its strategic interests.
The US is building the perception that Pakistan is a “terrorist-infested” country in order to “legitimize” what might be a forthcoming comprehensive sanctions campaign against it similar to the one that it’s currently waging against Iran.
These three Great Powers’ efforts could be for naught if Syria loses patience and commences its campaign ahead of Friday’s event or if a US false flag chemical weapons attack in Idlib manages to radically change the strategic equation.