A compromise will probably be reached in the coming future whereby India earns a waiver from the US’ CAATSA sanctions per the National Defense Authorization Act of 2019’s clause that this is possible if it either reduces its overall purchase of Russian weaponry or cooperates with America on other issues critical to its strategic interests.
The US is building the perception that Pakistan is a “terrorist-infested” country in order to “legitimize” what might be a forthcoming comprehensive sanctions campaign against it similar to the one that it’s currently waging against Iran.
With or without Russian participation, however, the very proposal of constructing a TAPI branch line through Pakistan to China underlines the South Asian state’s connectivity significance and proves why it could rightly be described as the “Zipper of Pan-Eurasian Integration”.
The Pakistani Navy is just the latest party to express an interest in these waterways and the hinterland markets that their terminal ports lead to, thus confirming the trend that the center of naval gravity is shifting in the direction of the Horn of Africa because of strategic economic reasons.
Ties between Russia and Pakistan represent one of the 21st century’s most promising partnerships and perfectly embody the very essence of multipolarity, which is why they must be prioritized by both countries’ leaderships in order to take them to the strategic level as soon as possible.
After decades of dynastic politics under the Bhutto and Sharif families, there is suddenly hope that newly elected cricket star Imran Khan and his Tehreek-e-Insaf Party (PTI) may – just may – tackle Pakistan’s four biggest problems: endemic corruption, military interference, political tribalism, and a half-dead economy.
Pakistan’s new Prime Minister has acknowledge the country has serious governance problems and will hopefully attempt to redress soonest its self-inflicted tyrannies. Only then will the country and its new Prime Minister restore its credibility within its own citizenry and also abroad as a trusted nation and reliable ally.
So long as the nuclear balance between Pakistan and India can be maintained, then a conventional military peace between the two Great Powers is assured, but the disruption of this equilibrium is dangerous for the entire world because of the encouragement that this could give either state to launch a first strike.
Pakistan’s next Prime Minister was democratically elected in a free and fair election. Bringing corrupt politicians to justice and embracing populism aren’t indicative of “military meddling”, but are the sign of our times, with Khan being the latest visionary leader to enter into office by appealing to the people’s desires.
Given the massive shift in the distribution of power taking place today in the direction of a multipolar world order, India can be expected to take a renewed interest in the BRICS and RIC forums. However, it is the SCO, which provides a unique platform for India to restructure its relations with China and Pakistan.
The civil war or a direct assault on Iran could well lead to the downfall of the Quraysh houses of Al-Saud and Al-Neyhan, the conquest of both Mecca and Jerusalem by the Multipolar CENTO (it is expected that Russia and China would both provide the necessary military support as Russia did for Syria) and the end of the American empire.
The high-level intensification of the Hybrid War on Pakistan is intended to damage its target’s international reputation, but might counterproductively raise its soft power profile among its newfound multipolar partners.
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