The New York Times’ report could backfire against its planners by reinforcing Trump and Maduro’s domestic positions, with the former using it as proof that there are indeed high-level traitors trying to sabotage a very sensitive part of his administration’s foreign policy in Latin America while the latter’s government has already said that the US is trying to carry out a regime change against it.
Camilo believes Nicaragua has temporarily defeated a “soft coup” attempt but the danger is not over. The opposition forces internally and internationally are still there.
Colombia’s comparatively larger population and economy, as well as its geostrategic bi-oceanic position, make it the US’ ideal “Lead From Behind” partner, and its growing proxy influence over Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela, that the US wants to use for reorganizing South America.
The cycle of underdevelopment, debt bondage, destabilization by dint of so-called “structural reforms”, and military intervention is therefore very difficult for countries to break free from, and Haiti unfortunately has next to no realistic hope to ever do so in the near future.
Mexico is therefore in a conundrum because it must urgently deal with the cartels yet there’s no perfect solution for doing so, as the existing “hard” policy has evidently failed while the “soft” one could amount to surrendering the state to their clutches.
Instead of coming off as a brilliant “balancing” move that makes a variety of disparate countries stakeholders in its stability, Nicaragua’s military decree appears more and more like a clumsy attempt to hide its leadership’s capitulation to the US.
The US has been providing massive support to Colombia in its war against communist rebels for decades. The country now functions as a centrally positioned springboard for NATO right at the nexus of North and South America, one which has the potential for being used as their proxy against the multipolar ALBA countries of Venezuela and Nicaragua.
Even before the results of the vote were published, Washington announced the promulgation of a «Presidential decree forbidding certain supplementary operations concerning Venezuela». Faced with the reality of the result, there was silence. What possible pursuit could be undertaken to advance the plan for the destruction of states and societies in the region?
The most important significance of what just happened is that it proves the success of the US’ “Operation Condor 2.0” hemisphere-wide unipolar comeback over the past few years in regaining control of most of the continent following its “Pink Tide” multipolar “rebellion” a decade ago.
Nowadays Nicaragua is the host of China’s planned Transoceanic Canal that’s meant to rival the Panamanian one but which has thus far sluggishly struggled to get off the ground, though like almost everything in contemporary International Relations, there’s also a Russian angle to it as well.
Although Guatemala recognized Belize’s 1981 independence over a decade later in 1992, it never dropped its claims to the southern half of this newly created country.
Bolivia’s international liberal plea for sovereign access to the Pacific is interestingly a realist ploy for domestic political purposes that will have profound geostrategic consequences in the New Cold War.