Through a combination of what might be “deep state” wars, the Maldives might avoid losing its strategic independence after this shock electoral upset and the country’s seemingly impending consequent pivot towards India, but as with everything in International Relations, nothing can be entirely assured.
A compromise will probably be reached in the coming future whereby India earns a waiver from the US’ CAATSA sanctions per the National Defense Authorization Act of 2019’s clause that this is possible if it either reduces its overall purchase of Russian weaponry or cooperates with America on other issues critical to its strategic interests.
India will be on a slippery slope once it agrees to discuss with the US its defence relationship with Russia on a case-by-case basis. It will be an affront to India’s sovereignty and self-respect to allow the US to have a say in its relations with Russia.
Nepal’s present government isn’t comprised of Hindu traditionalists but of secular communists, though they understand the long-term challenge that foreign-backed religious minority organizations can pose to national stability.
The Pakistani Navy is just the latest party to express an interest in these waterways and the hinterland markets that their terminal ports lead to, thus confirming the trend that the center of naval gravity is shifting in the direction of the Horn of Africa because of strategic economic reasons.
Ties between Russia and Pakistan represent one of the 21st century’s most promising partnerships and perfectly embody the very essence of multipolarity, which is why they must be prioritized by both countries’ leaderships in order to take them to the strategic level as soon as possible.
After decades of dynastic politics under the Bhutto and Sharif families, there is suddenly hope that newly elected cricket star Imran Khan and his Tehreek-e-Insaf Party (PTI) may – just may – tackle Pakistan’s four biggest problems: endemic corruption, military interference, political tribalism, and a half-dead economy.
If China and India joined forces to coordinate their developmental policies towards a certain African state or even entire region as a whole, then they’d remove the chance for any wasteful redundancies between them and resultantly improve the efficiency of their comprehensive strategies.
So long as the nuclear balance between Pakistan and India can be maintained, then a conventional military peace between the two Great Powers is assured, but the disruption of this equilibrium is dangerous for the entire world because of the encouragement that this could give either state to launch a first strike.
Given the massive shift in the distribution of power taking place today in the direction of a multipolar world order, India can be expected to take a renewed interest in the BRICS and RIC forums. However, it is the SCO, which provides a unique platform for India to restructure its relations with China and Pakistan.
Although the US maritime presence is global, and every country in the world, in one way or another, falls under the responsibility of the various Pentagon commands, the official line justifying the US presence from the Horn of Africa to the Strait of Malacca will now be more assertive and direct.
India’s plans for becoming a world power are unsustainable without the strong growth that would be afforded by a 1990s China-like economic partnership with the US, and its decision makers are now beginning to fear the consequences of indefinitely remaining the US’ “junior partner” for the rest of the century.