So long as the nuclear balance between Pakistan and India can be maintained, then a conventional military peace between the two Great Powers is assured, but the disruption of this equilibrium is dangerous for the entire world because of the encouragement that this could give either state to launch a first strike.
Given the massive shift in the distribution of power taking place today in the direction of a multipolar world order, India can be expected to take a renewed interest in the BRICS and RIC forums. However, it is the SCO, which provides a unique platform for India to restructure its relations with China and Pakistan.
Although the US maritime presence is global, and every country in the world, in one way or another, falls under the responsibility of the various Pentagon commands, the official line justifying the US presence from the Horn of Africa to the Strait of Malacca will now be more assertive and direct.
India’s plans for becoming a world power are unsustainable without the strong growth that would be afforded by a 1990s China-like economic partnership with the US, and its decision makers are now beginning to fear the consequences of indefinitely remaining the US’ “junior partner” for the rest of the century.
The speech by Modi in the Shangri-La dialogue restated India’s desirable role as the spearhead of liberal international order. The speech moreover emphasized on the importance of peace, security, and cooperation through a rule-based order in the Indian Ocean.
A new American-encouraged Great Power constellation is therefore in the process of forming all across the Indo-Pacific Rimland in seeing India, Indonesia, and Japan deepening their multilateral strategic integration with one another, with Washington desiring for New Delhi to play the role of regional hegemon in the Indian Ocean.
Rosneft’s controversial move indirectly introduced Russia to the simmering South China Sea dispute, but this might be a good thing because Moscow is known to favor international law and negotiations to any dispute instead of push its partners towards waging war in order to settle problems like the US-led Quad is prone to do.
The most probable outcome of next week’s Putin-Modi Summit is that the two Great Powers will successfully redefine their historic relationship in the present New Cold War context clarifying their positions & intentions on working with the other’s rival but ultimately agreeing to disagree on this.
The ORF’s public meeting with the Heritage Foundation was a success for India because its most famous academic-expert representatives convincingly virtue signaled to the powerful neoconservative deep state faction that their country is aware of China’s purportedly pernicious intentions in “pushing for the soul of Europe”.
The “Cold Peace” should be seen as a short-term tactical measure to help each of these Great Powers gain the perception (key word) of greater leverage over the US during the onset of Trump’s protectionist “trade war” than as a long-term strategic understanding paving the way for a “New Détente”.
It was during the UPA rule that India’s relationship with Russia got significantly atrophied – and, sadly, much of it happened during the period of Russia’s resurgence on the world stage.
US planners are orchestrating India’s all-around expansion into this ocean, but China can utilize creative solutions in leveraging its multipolar Silk Road partnerships to proactively counteract this latent threat before it becomes uncontrollable.
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