Regardless of the current protest movement’s staying power – which isn’t expected to be much – the latest outbreak of demonstrations makes it all the more difficult for Vietnam to reach any pragmatic deal with China in the future no matter what the terms might be now that Hanoi sees just how controversial any agreement – whether real or imagined – with Beijing is to its citizens.
South East Asia
Who can blame the North Koreans for blowing their tops? As Trump administration mouthpieces were gabbing about peace and light, the US Air Force was getting ready to fly B-52 heavy bombers and F-22 Raptor stealth fighters around North Korea’s borders and missile-armed subs lurked at sea.
Malaysia under the returned leadership of Prime Minister Mahathir is expected to remain multipolar, even if it changes the manner in which it has hitherto expressed this geostrategic vision by rebalancing its relations with China and the US.
The Kachin rebels are concentrated mostly near the Chinese border, where some refugees have previously fled, and this brings about the possibility that the People’s Republic might be adversely affected if the situation doesn’t soon stabilize.
Due to international pressure and its own prerogative as well as a mix of fact and speculation North Korea is surprisingly following in Libya’s footsteps in the denuclearization process, though it remains to be seen whether this risky gamble will ultimately lead to a different outcome.
What should one expect from the upcoming US-North Korea summit? Whatever deals are struck, they must be clearly demarcated, so as to leave no room for aberration.
The stifling of free speech by de-facto intimidating people from expressing “politically incorrect” commentary under the basis of combating fake news will inevitably exacerbate domestic tensions inside any society with time.
The US will only succeed in its quest to indefinitely prolong the unipolar moment if it destabilizes the Central Asian core of Eurasia, which would consequently disrupt the independent rise of the five Great Powers that form the Golden Circle of the Heartland.
The latest leadership changes in Ethiopia and Myanmar indicate that there are serious problems behind the scenes in both states and that the US’ Hybrid War campaigns have worked to the extent that they’ve begun to produce visible results in shaking up the state of affairs in both countries.
it’s likely that Vietnam could play some role – however informal – in the so-called “Quad” between the US, Japan, Australia, and India in “containing China”, up to de-facto becoming the “Quint” if Vietnam is fully integrated into this developing military integrational platform.
Duterte is going to feel the heat from the US, and it’s just a question of whether he’ll be in a better position to counteract it if he has absolute power or if he abides by the constitution’s limitations to his authority.
The Cambodian National Rescue Party might inadvertently pose more of a strategic risk to the “Freedom Corridor” than President Hun Sen ever could.