The Horn of Africa is on the cusp of profound change that could soon see more comprehensive Ethiopian-led integrational proposals such as streamlining economic and trade coordination within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and eventually pairing the bloc with the East African Community.
Altogether, the prime takeaway from the UAE’s hosting of the Ethiopian & Eritrean leaders and its awarding of the highest state honor to each of them is that Abu Dhabi is signaling to the world that it’s capable of punching well above its geopolitical weight and has indisputably become a transregional Great Power in spite of its tiny size.
Whether in Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, or even the US, visionary leaders appear to be under attack by their “deep state” foes, with the prevalence of high-level but largely unseen intra-state conflicts forming an inextricable part of the New Cold War.
Premier Ahmed’s surprise visit to Cairo over the weekend saw him and President Sisi agree to peacefully settle their differences over this issue, however, with the regional spillover effect being that Eritrea is no longer that useful to Egypt as its supposed anti-Ethiopian proxy.
The development of an Ethiopian Navy would also be the first time that an African country has proactively gotten involved in the new “Scramble for Africa” that began in the Horn region in the mid-2000s following the spree of Somali piracy off the coast.
Somalia has been shaken by three interconnected developments over the past few weeks which show that the UAE is dedicated to destabilizing the country in order to cynically advance its grand strategic interests in the region at Mogadishu’s expense.
Abiy Ahmed’s election by the EPDRF as their new chairman and most likely the country’s next Prime Minister appears to be more than just an insincere and hasty “band-aid solution” of elevating a “token” Oromo Muslim figure to power and seems to truly indicate that the country is on the cusp of full-blown change.
The latest leadership changes in Ethiopia and Myanmar indicate that there are serious problems behind the scenes in both states and that the US’ Hybrid War campaigns have worked to the extent that they’ve begun to produce visible results in shaking up the state of affairs in both countries.
The security situation is made all the more pronounced by the fact that some of the ethnic minority groups opposed to the government are armed and reported to receive assistance from Ethiopia’s neighboring foe Eritrea.
Egypt and Eritrea both deny that any troops were sent to Sawa, but some reports indicate that this move was actually in response to Turkey clinching a deal to develop the Sudanese island of Suakin near Port Sudan late last year.
An exclusive strategic forecast of the political and security developments in Africa for the Year 2018, by the author of Sputnik radio’s Context Countdown program.
Should proxy warfare operations heat up in the Horn of Africa, then the implications could endanger China’s Silk Road railway through Djibouti to the Ethiopian capital.