The scenario agreed on behind the curtains through months of confidential exchanges, often one-on-one, between the Russian and Turkish leaders regarding north-eastern Syria is entering a critical phase of implementation on the ground with the agreement between the Kurds and the Assad regime. We have a complex scenario where on […]
More war in wretched Syria. Half the population is now refugees; entire cities lie shattered by bombing; bands of crazed gunmen run rampant; US, French, Israeli and Russian warplanes bomb widely. Now, adding to the chaos, President Donald Trump has finally given Turkey, NATO’s second military power, the green light […]
Big powers, as with the greatest of gangsters, have always had a certain, indulgent luxury; their prerogative is to make promises they can choose to abide by or ignore. A vision is assured, guarantees made. Then comes the betrayal. The small powers, often pimped in the process, can only deal […]
The US president Donald Trump is not known to practise judo. A few judo techniques he may have got to know from his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, who is a Black Belt. But what Trump has just done to Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan is straight out of a Physics concept […]
Six years after Turkish President Recep Erdogan floated the idea of creating a safe zone in northern Syria, it still remains a chimera. When the Turks lobbied for the zone, notably in 2013 and 2015, the Obama administration rebuffed them on the plea that protecting it would entail putting a […]
It’s a messy, though typical picture. US President Donald Trump wants to pull out forces in Syria. When announced in December, jaws drooped and sharp intakes of breath were registered through the Washington establishment. Members of the military industrial complex were none too pleased. The President had seemingly made his […]
Representatives from Iran, Russia, and Turkey met in Sochi to discuss the fate of the province of Idlib. Specifically – to debate the price of a Turkish pullout from the region. But the most significant long-term issues center on Iran.
It could be presented as a brave decision on the authorities’ behalf to inject a fresh impetus into the interconnected constitutional reform and peace processes. Framing this move in such a way could even earn Damascus international praise from the West and inch it closer to possible sanctions relief if a comprehensive deal is struck for ending the war.
If the U.S. does not keep its promises and continue supporting the Kurds, the Turkey’s contract for the purchase of Russia’s S-400 will remain in force. If the Kurds leave Manbij and other areas specified by Ankara, Turkey will receive American anti-missile systems, sacrificing relations with Moscow.
It appears that the renewed conflict led to all actors involved to switch their sides to pursue their mutual interest which includes the new U.S –Turkey and its FSA, Assad-YPG alliance in Syrian civil war.
In pursuit of maintaining the so-called “middle ground”, President Erdogan has rhetorically oscillated between the West and Russia in order to provoke the unipolar and multipolar “blocs” to compete with one another for Turkey’s loyalty.
The fast-moving developments go to show that the old model of colonialism no longer works in post-colonial societies where former colonizers sought to exploit minority groups against the majority. The people of northeastern Syria will not allow their actual former colonizer to return to their country and use pro-Western Kurds as their proxy tool for suppressing the Arab majority.