The point of this analysis was to approach this emotive issue from a cold analytical distance in order to better understand the overall dynamics at play.
The Rohingya Crisis has taken the world by storm, but should not come as a surprise for those who’ve been astutely following the Myanmar Civil War.
(Please read Part I, Part II, and Part III prior to this article) The research has exhaustively explained all of the relevant Hybrid War variables in Myanmar, and will now transition to its final section in forecasting the various scenario branches that this type of conflict could take. Before proceeding, […]
(Please read Part I and Part II prior to this article) Neophytes might understandably feel intimidated when they begin delving deep into Myanmar’s internal complexities, finding out firsthand why the country’s civil war is perhaps the world’s most difficult to comprehend. There’s an overwhelming amount of information available about the […]
(Please read Part I prior to this article) The Unipolar Transition Structural And Social Preconditioning: Although the Saffron Revolution failed in achieving its regime change goals, what it did succeed in was sending an ominous warning sign to the Myanmar generals of the sort of destabilization scenarios that they could […]
The last ASEAN country to be studied within the book is Myanmar, which is by far the most susceptible of the entire bunch to Hybrid War. Truth be told, it’s been experiencing some form or another of Hybrid War since its independence in 1948, although this mostly took the form […]
(Please read Part I and Part II prior to this article) Theoretical Review Identifying The Targets: The first two parts of the series introduced new concepts to the Hybrid War theory and successfully tested them on the Syrian and Ukrainian cases. This proved that a certain methodology does in fact […]
Russia is in the midst of a transformational geo-economic pivot, whereby its previous Western-prioritized economic relations are rapidly moving towards Asia. As part of this historic shift, Russia seeks to spearhead three North-South vectors of trade, with the subject of this article being the one directed towards ASEAN. The Asian […]
(Please read Part I prior to this article) The first part of the series addressed the Nationwide Ceasefire Accord (NCA) and the strategic geography resulting thereof, while this concluding section forecasts the three progressively intensifying post-election scenarios for where the polarized tension is headed. Because of its length, it’s divided […]
Myanmar passed an historic milestone on 15 October, signing into effect what its government terms to be a “Nationwide Ceasefire Accord” (NCA) between itself and eight ethnically centered rebel organizations. As positive of a step as this may notionally be towards resolving the world’s longest-running civil war, it’s substantially without […]
(Please read Part I prior to this article) The Fog Of Hybrid War Creeps Over The Irrawaddy Myanmar’s already fragile domestic stability has been further undermined by this soft coup attempt and the subsequent high-risks game being played out through Suu Kyi and Shwe Mann’s public alliance against the government. […]
An unexpected change of ruling party leadership took place in Myanmar in mid-August after troops were dispatched in a late-night mission to remove Thura U Shwe Mann from the Union Solidarity and Development Party’s (USDP) headquarters. The Central Executive Committee was also reshuffled almost immediately afterwards after many of its […]